Hawthorn and St Kilda will go head-to-head for the Blue Ribbon Cup in their Round 10 clash at Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon (4.40pm).
The form
Hawthorn – WLWLW (most recent first)
Hawthorn will be buoyant after its fifth win of the season at the weekend – a comprehensive 53-point triumph over the Gold Coast Suns at Aurora Stadium.
But consistency will be the focal point for Coach Alastair Clarkson and his side, which is yet to claim consecutive victories this season.
The Hawks sit in sixth place on the ladder, with five wins and four losses – and a win will be crucial to keep in touch with the top four.
St Kilda – WLLWL
St Kilda will not be short on confidence either after its spectacular turnaround against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba last weekend.
Trailing by 29 points early in the contest, the young Saints rebounded to claim a 22-point win and a 3-6 win-loss record.
Sitting two wins outside the top eight, the Saints will see this match as a great opportunity to test themselves against the reigning premiers.
Recent history
You could be forgiven for forgetting the last time the Hawks lost to the Saints – it’s been a while.
Brown and gold has dominated contests between the two clubs in recent times, barring a draw in 2010.
The Saints’ last win against the Hawks came in 2009, a year where the Saints reached the grand final but fell just short against Geelong.
The Hawks won last year’s clash with the Saints – Jordan Lewis’ 200th AFL match – by a whopping 145 points, and the clubs’ previous three meetings by five goals or more.
Line-ups
Hawthorn
Hawthorn should edge closer to its full strength side this week, with a number of key players set to return from injury.
Jordan Lewis (bruised shoulder) is expected to be available after being a late withdrawal at the weekend, while Matt Spangher and Ben McEvoy have recovered from hamstring injuries.
Grant Birchall (ankle) and Will Langford (calf) could return, while Paul Puopolo (foot) will be touch and go.
Jonathan Simpkin, Ryan Schoenmakers and Jonathan O’Rourke will also be pushing for senior selection after standout performances for VFL affiliate Box Hill.
St Kilda
The Saints emerged from their win at the weekend without any major injury concerns.
Daniel McKenzie was concussed in the final quarter and will have to pass a variety of tests to prove his fitness.
Skipper Nick Riewoldt made a successful return from concussion against the Lions, playing a starring role with four goals.
Key defender Sam Fisher will miss with a hamstring injury, while Maverick Weller accepted a one-game suspension earlier in the week.
Josh Saunders, Farren Ray and Hugh Goddard impressed for the Saints’ VFL affiliate Sandringham at the weekend.
Key players
Hawthorn
Hawthorn will be hoping to have ball magnets Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis back together on Sunday.
Lewis leads the competition for average disposals per match with 34.3, with both Hodge (30) and Mitchell (28.9) also in the top ten.
But the trio have played in the same side just four times this year and will be hard for the Saints to contain if they all fire at once.
Bradley Hill, Isaac Smith and Liam Shiels are also coming off strong performances, again highlighting the amount of depth within the Hawks’ on-ball brigade.
St Kilda
Stopping in-form St Kilda midfielder David Armitage will be critical to the Hawks’ chances.
Armitage is undoubtedly in career-best form.
The Saints star is the competition’s leading disposal winner (295 in nine games) and is the only player in in the competition ranked in the top ten for both contested (fifth) and uncontested (fourth) possessions.
The Hawks will also need to keep an eye on the Saints’ forward line, which has proven hard to stop once it gets going.
Tall target Josh Bruce (26 goals) is sitting fifth on the Coleman Medal tally, while superstar Nick Riewoldt is fresh from a four-goal, 10-mark effort at the weekend.
Important factors
Can the Saints shut down the Hawks forwards?
Hawthorn is one of just two sides to average more than 100 points per game this season, ranked second (106.88) behind West Coast.
On the other hand, St Kilda is ranked 15th defensively, conceding an average of 103.22 points per game.
Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston and Ryan Schoenmakers each kicked four goals in the sides’ previous meeting.
Bruest (22 goals), Roughead (20) and Gunston (19) have all started 2015 well, ranked in the top 15 goal-kickers in the competition.
They will be looking to take advantage of an inexperienced Saints’ defence.
The amount of supply has helped, with the Hawks the number one ranked team for inside-50s, averaging 61.2 per match, four more than any other team.
Who will win the contested ball?
Little has separated the clubs in the centre of the ground this season, and winning the ball out of the middle will be crucial at Etihad Stadium on Sunday.
In terms of centre clearances, Hawthorn is ranked 10th (12.2 per game) and St Kilda is narrowly behind with 11.9 on average.
The contested possession tally is similar, with the Hawks averaging 139.9 per game (ranked sixth) ahead of St Kilda with 137.4 per game (ranked eighth).
Out of both sides, Saints star David Armitage leads the way with 23 centre clearances for the season.
Skipper Luke Hodge and Sam Mitchell (both 13) lead the way for the Hawks.
Fast finishers
Come-from-behind wins over the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions have proven St Kilda can be dangerous late in games.
Overturning 55-point and 29-point deficits against the Bulldogs and Lions respectively will be a massive confidence-booster for the Saints’ young talent.
But they won’t want to let the Hawks off the leash on Sunday.
The Hawks have been ruthless in their five victories this season, enjoying success with an average winning margin of 70 points.
In all five wins, the Hawks’ half-time leads had more than doubled by the final siren – proving their ability to also finish at the top of their game.
