HAWTHORN is firming as the favourite to land GWS midfield star Dylan Shiel, but coming up with a trade that satisfies the Giants won't be easy.
Shiel has attracted feverish interest from Victorian clubs ahead of this year's NAB AFL Trade Period, especially since it's emerged the Giants are prepared to consider releasing the 2017 All Australian from his contract for 2019.
The Hawks' main rivals in the race for Shiel are Carlton and St Kilda, with Essendon believed to have dropped out of the running.
St Kilda and Carlton are offering significantly more money than the Hawks: the Saints reportedly have a six-year deal worth up to $8 million on the table, while the Hawks' offer is no more than $900,000 a season.
The Blues are pulling out all stops to convince Shiel his future lies at Visy Park, having reportedly flown the midfielder to Noosa to meet with club powerbrokers on Tuesday.
However, the prevailing view among rival list managers and recruiters is Hawthorn will ultimately be Shiel's preferred destination.
If this proves correct, things could become tricky for the Hawks when they sit down with GWS to broker a trade.
Of Shiel's three suitors, they are clearly the worst placed to satisfy the Giants with draft picks.
The Saints hold pick No.3 (pending free agency compensation picks and academy selections) and the Blues, who are expected to use this year's No.1 selection on Geelong Falcons midfielder Sam Walsh, could offer their future first-round pick, which even on the most optimistic projections is likely to fall comfortably inside the top 10.
The Hawks' first selection this year does not fall until No.14 and that won't be enough to satisfy the Giants, who, at least as a starting point, would likely demand Hawthorn's 2019 first-round pick too.
That's a high price to pay but this year's Trade Period appears set to be a seller's market, with Melbourne understood to be seeking two early first-round picks for Jesse Hogan, Port Adelaide two first-round picks for Chad Wingard and Gold Coast expected to set the bar similarly high for Steven May.
Which sets the scene for some fascinating – and drawn-out – negotiations.
