Change is already here.
The AFL's new '6-6-6' starting position at centre bounces is shifting the way teams must think about scoring – and winning – through the first two rounds.
More than 72 per cent of sides that clinched the centre-bounce battle emerged victorious in the opening fortnight, about 18 per cent higher than last year.
That figure is significantly above any other time in the past five seasons, with the highest in that period being 61 per cent in 2016.
It means stars such as Marcus Bontempelli, Patrick Cripps, Scott Pendlebury, Clayton Oliver and Nat Fyfe, who are all among the centre-clearance leaders, are arguably more valuable than ever now.
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There is still no jump in overall scoring, with 15 of the 18 games to date featuring at least one points tally of 72 or less.
However, the evidence so far is indisputable: you are a better chance of being an offensive juggernaut and winning matches if you thrive in the centre.
North Melbourne coach Brad Scott, who is on the AFL's Competition Committee, went as far as calling the sport in 2019 "a different game" after Brisbane tore apart his Roos in the middle on Sunday.
The Lions racked up 43 points from centre bounces, the equal-22nd best effort this century.
SEASON | ROUND | CLUB | CENTRE-BOUNCE POINTS |
2011 | 19 | Geelong | 57 |
2008 | 22 | Hawthorn | 56 |
2014 | 7 | Port Adelaide | 55 |
2016 | 7 | Western Bulldogs | 50 |
2002 | 8 | Western Bulldogs | 49 |
2012 | 16 | Adelaide | 49 |
2006 | 12 | Western Bulldogs | 49 |
2012 | 18 | West Coast | 48 |
2012 | 20 | Hawthorn | 47 |
2005 | 22 | St Kilda | 46 |
2006 | 21 | Essendon | 46 |
2008 | 1 | Adelaide | 45 |
2012 | 21 | Sydney | 45 |
2004 | 1 | West Coast | 45 |
2004 | 10 | St Kilda | 45 |
2006 | 1 | Essendon | 44 |
2013 | 3 | Richmond | 44 |
2006 | 10 | Adelaide | 44 |
2008 | 13 | Essendon | 44 |
2005 | 18 | Carlton | 44 |
2007 | 20 | Geelong | 44 |
2018 | 9 | Melbourne | 43 |
2013 | 18 | Hawthorn | 43 |
2019 | 2 | Brisbane | 43 |
2007 | 19 | Richmond | 43 |
2010 | 12 | Geelong | 43 |
2005 | 10 | West Coast | 43 |
"Last year, on average, both teams can expect to score roughly nine points from centre bounces," Scott said.
"We lost the centre bounces horribly, and that's bad enough. But then they scored 43 points from those centre bounces and we scored only 14 points.
"There are a lot of things that go into a game of footy, but that matters more than it's ever mattered in football history, I suspect. It's a huge component of the game."
North's 14 points on Sunday from centre bounces were actually above the season average of 12.9, but it was a problem because of what was happening the other way.
The scoring out of the middle is akin to what was occurring in the 2008 and 2007 seasons.
POINTS FROM CENTRE BOUNCES
YEAR | TEAM SCORE PER GAME |
2019 | 12.9 points |
2018 | 9.4 |
2017 | 10.2 |
2016 | 11.1 |
2015 | 10.3 |
2014 | 10.2 |
2013 | 11.3 |
2012 | 11.7 |
2011 | 11.6 |
2010 | 9.4 |
2009 | 10.4 |
2008 | 12.2 |
2007 | 12 |
2006 | 11.5 |
Ramming the change home further is that 16.1 per cent of overall points are coming from centre bounces.
This is up from 11.4 per cent last year, with the 2016 season's 12.6 per cent again the closest in recent times to what's happening in 2019, but still well behind.
Only time will tell whether the trend continues or if it's just an early-season mirage.
