IT IS one of football's most exclusive clubs – featuring members like Nick Riewoldt, Sam Mitchell and Joel Selwood – and on Tuesday the NAB AFL Rising Star winners' circle will welcome its 24th member.
• Rising Star winners: 1993-present
This year, Sydney Swans backman Callum Mills and Western Bulldogs onballer Caleb Daniel are tipped to fight it out for the prestigious award, with both players pushing strong cases to take home the Ron Evans Medal.
But perhaps it shouldn't be down to just a two-horse race.
Because using the most sophisticated algorithm ever applied to the sport – the Official AFL Player Ratings – Melbourne's emerging gun Christian Petracca and towering Gold Coast forward Peter Wright have strong claims to be firmly in the running.
To calculate the ratings, Champion Data awards positive and negative points to every action on the field to assess a player's impact on a match.
It takes into account everything from intercepts to smothers to corralling to spoils plus every one-percenter in between.
This season, Caleb Daniel's sheer football smarts helped him tally the most Player Ratings points of any nominee across his 20 games.
The 168cm pocket dynamo averaged 21.4 disposals this season – the most of any nominee – and is a huge chance to become the Western Bulldogs' first ever Rising Star winner.
However, damaging forward Petracca shouldn't be without a chance of making it back-to-back gongs for the Dees after Jesse Hogan stormed to victory last year.
• Meet 2016's nominees at the NAB AFL Rising Star hub
Petracca led the Rising Star field for impact on matches this season and performed way above expectations in his particular role.
He led the pack by averaging 11.5 ratings points per game (196 in total) - astonishing numbers after coming back from a knee reconstruction.
For a 20-year-old general forward, his average rating per game was a stellar 52 per cent above expectations for a player his age in that role.
2016's Rising Star nominees ranked by their average AFL Player Ratings*
| Player | Club | Position | Matches | Ratings total | Ratings avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca | MELB | Forward | 17 | 196.0 | 11.5 |
| Peter Wright | GC | Key forward | 17 | 188.1 | 11.1 |
| Orazio Fantasia | ESS | Forward | 19 | 193.4 | 10.2 |
| Clayton Oliver | MELB | Midfielder | 13 | 130.1 | 10.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | WB | Midfielder / forward | 20 | 198.1 | 9.9 |
| Jade Gresham | STK | Forward | 18 | 168.9 | 9.4 |
| Callum Mills | SYD | Defender | 20 | 186.8 | 9.3 |
| Darcy Parish | ESS | Midfielder | 20 | 184.1 | 9.2 |
| Connor Blakely | FRE | Midfielder | 15 | 135.9 | 9.1 |
| Jacob Weitering | CARL | Key defender | 20 | 179.0 | 9.0 |
| James Harmes | MELB | Defender | 19 | 169.9 | 8.9 |
| Blake Acres | STK | Midfielder / forward | 16 | 142.5 | 8.9 |
| Oscar McDonald | MELB | Key defender | 15 | 131.8 | 8.8 |
| James Sicily | HAW | Forward | 21 | 181.9 | 8.7 |
| Lachie Weller | FRE | Forward | 22 | 183.1 | 8.3 |
| Tom Papley | SYD | Forward | 16 | 129.7 | 8.1 |
| Daniel Rioli | RICH | Forward | 18 | 136.1 | 7.6 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | PORT | Defender | 20 | 148.8 | 7.4 |
| Darcy Moore | COLL | Key forward | 17 | 118.0 | 6.9 |
| Josh Dunkley | WB | Midfielder / forward | 13 | 73.3 | 5.6 |
*Min 10 games
Only developing key forward 'Two Metre' Peter Wright's performances relative to expectations were higher (11.1 points per game, +61 per cent) among Rising Star nominees, with Mills coming in third (9.3 ratings points per game, +47 per cent above expectations).
Wright found a niche as a sidekick to superstar Tom Lynch, booting 27 goals and ranking top 30 in the League for contested marks and marks inside 50 in his second season in the game.
Meanwhile, Mills slotted straight into the Swans' miserly defence and the academy product turned heads with his elite intercepting ability, also averaging 19 touches in a composed debut season which could net him a premiership medallion.
Recent history is also on his side to take home the Rising Star gong.
Favouritism has generally been an accurate guide and the 19-year-old is at short odds to be crowned the Swans' first winner since Dan Hannebery in 2010.
