The form – Hawthorn
While the Hawks defeated Brisbane by 48 points, the game was much closer than the final margin suggests. The Hawks were rusty and the Lions capitalised on that by making the premiers work for their opening round victory.
The skills and efficiency of the Hawks improved as the game progressed to eventually run away with the win and Alastair Clarkson’s team will definitely be better for the run heading into Friday night’s blockbuster.
The form – Essendon
In contrast, Hawthorn’s Round 2 opponents were breathtaking in their opening round victory over pre-season buzz team, North Melbourne. The Bombers moved the ball quickly and used it efficiently to set up their forwards to kick a winning score.
Many are predicting there could be an upset because of the form of the Bombers and the rusty start by Hawthorn. Essendon’s gun players like Jobe Watson, Brendon Goddard and Paul Chapman are already in great form.
Recent history
The Hawks have won their past four meetings with Essendon dating back to Round 13, 2010 but have won their last three by an average of 71 points.
The biggest winning margin in that time was 94 points, when the Hawks thumped the Bombers at Etihad Stadium in Round 18, 2012.
Essendon hasn’t beaten Hawthorn since Round 6, 2010 when they won handsomely at the MCG by 43 points.
Hawthorn’s defence v Essendon’s forwards
After managing to overcome Brisbane with Brian Lake, Ben Stratton and Ryan Schoenmakers missing from their key defensive stocks, the Hawks will be faced with another tall order on Friday night.
The trio won’t play and unfortunately for the Hawks, Essendon have a number of tall, dangerous forwards capable of kicking multiple goals.
Rising star Joe Daniher (201cm), Patrick Ryder (196cm), Jake Carlisle (198cm) and Michael Hurley (193m) who could spend time at both ends of the ground.
There is no doubt Bombers coach Mark Thompson will look to exploit the Hawthorn defence that will be reliant again on Josh Gibson (189cm) and Kyle Cheney (187cm) to take on the key defensive roles.
Gibson and Cheney fought valiantly against Jonathan Brown, Trent West and Michael Close last Saturday evening and there’s no doubt Alastair Clarkson and defensive coach Luke Beveridge will have a plan to compensate for their lack of height down back.
Interestingly though, the Hawks have actually, up until last year had a defence that has been outsized by its opposition, so they’re not short on experience in working together to overcome their bigger opponents.
The defensive structure in place at Hawthorn combined with the willingness of the players to help each other is among the best in the competition – it’s about working as a team rather than as individuals.
The midfield battle
When the two star-studded midfields go head-to-head on Friday night, whoever wins the battle will win the war.
The Bombers love to get the ball into the hands of their outside runners like Brendon Goddard, Dyson Heppell, David Zaharakis and they were better than any other team last week at releasing their ball users, with 160 uncontested possessions against the Roos.
It will be crucial for the Hawks to win the ball in close and get it to their runners like Isaac Smith and Bradley Hill and then pressure the Essendon ball carriers to make sure they don’t have the time and space to use their pace and skills.
When Hawthorn beat Essendon in Round 18 last year it was on the back of a brilliant performance from midfield stars like Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis.
Essendon’s midfield was well beaten.
Heading into Friday night’s clash, the Bombers midfield is firing with Watson, Goddard, Heppell and Zaharakis all enjoying standout performances last week.
Hawthorn’s forward line
Anyone hoping the potency of Hawthorn’s forward line would be reduced because of the departure of Lance Franklin would have been disappointed last week.
In Round 1, the Hawks still kicked more points than any other team – 139 – with Jarryd Roughead (five goals), Luke Breust (five) and Jack Gunston (two) doing the damage.
And that was without gun small forward, Cyril Rioli who will be back to face Essendon after serving his one-week suspension.
Roughead, Gunston, Breust and Rioli are dangerous enough without help from Ben McEvoy, Liam Shiels, Jordan Lewis, Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Tim O’Brien and Matt Suckling who all kicked goals last week.
And then there’s David Hale who is capable of kicking anywhere between one and five goals on any given day.
Franklin had an outstanding record against Essendon, which included eight goals in the Round 18 victory last year but what can’t be forgotten is that he was just one of the beneficiaries of Hawthorn’s superior play in that game.
If that Hawks dominate the midfield like they did last year, any one of Roughead, Gunston, Breust, Rioli or Hale will step up and become that dominating presence.
The Chapman factor
Former Geelong star Paul Chapman got off to a brilliant start at his new club last Friday night by booting four goals and showing he’s still one of the league’s elite players.
Chapman hasn’t been involved in a side that has been beaten by Hawthorn since the 2008 Grand Final (he didn’t play in last year’s Preliminary Final) and is an interesting sideshow to the main event on Friday night.
