The form – Hawthorn
After a sluggish opening two rounds of the season, the Hawks returned to the scintillating form we’ve come to expect last Friday night by systematically dismantling Fremantle.
Hawthorn’s kicking game was outstanding, with the side running at 78 per cent disposal efficiency at the end of the game, numbers rarely seen in AFL footy.
The gun midfielders like Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis and youngsters like Will Langford are in form, as are the dangerous forwards both tall and small.
The Hawks are three wins from three games and are well placed for the trip North to take on the Suns.
The form – Gold Coast
The Suns are on the rise and are now a genuine finals contender after an impressive start to the season, defeating Richmond and Brisbane in Rounds 1 and 3.
Their victory over the Tigers was most impressive, with their pressure around the ball and defensive structure rendering gun forward Jack Riewoldt insignificant.
Gary Ablett is in scintillating touch, as is David Swallow and Dion Prestia but more importantly, their forward line is now capable of kicking a winning score against teams in the top echelon.
Sam Day is currently their leading goal kicker with eight, just two behind Luke Breust and Nick Riewoldt on the AFL’s goal kicking leaderboard.
Recent history
The Suns haven’t beaten the Hawks yet but their performances against them have been impressive.
Their last meeting, in Round 9 last season was a step forward, with both sides fielding strong teams and the Suns giving the Hawks a scare.
On that day, the Suns lead by as much as 17 points in the third term before being overrun by a strong Hawthorn – the final margin a respectable 26 points.
Hawthorn has won each of the four meetings between the two sides by an average of 42 points.
How do the Hawks stop Ablett?
He’s the competition’s best player by some margin and his performances since joining the Suns have made him a more dominant and respected player.
He consistently racks up 30 or more disposals in a young midfield but now his ability to hurt his opposition on the scoreboard has made him a more complete player.
So far this season his has kicked five goals from three games – three behind Gold Coasts’ leading goal kicker, Sam Day.
Teams know he’s going to get the footy, so it’s more about limiting his impact when he does get it.
Ablett likes to run around for a handball to advance the footy, so his opponent - likely Langford who tagged David Mundy last week or Liam Shiels who had the defensive job last year, will need to follow him closely when he approaches a teammate who has marked or has a free kick.
Alastair Clarkson will likely approach the Ablett task with a team focus, rather than leaving the responsibility to one player.
Ablett is ranked sixth in the league for clearances and eleventh for centre clearances so his performances in that area are a little down on previous years but he could have a different opponent at the stoppages than he does around the ground.
A head-to-head battle with Sam Mitchell could be the way to go, with the gun Hawk possessing the strength to neutralise and/or beat him at stoppages and get the ball forward for his team.
Senior players like Jordan Lewis will likely help out around the stoppages and in the clinches and a Grant Birchall or Shaun Burgoyne type will step up when he pushes forward.
Where has Gold Coast’s improvement come from?
Now in their fourth season in the competition, the young Suns of 2011 with all that potential are now maturing into experienced AFL players.
They have had the benefit of strong pre-seasons and players like Dion Prestia and Jaeger O’Meara complement the senior bodies of Ablett, Michael Richitelli and Danny Stanley in the midfield.
The Suns are ranked number one in the league for contested possessions, averaging 165.7 per game – so where they previously might have been bullied by bigger bodies in tight, they can now compete on their own merits and win the battles in the clinches.
They are also ranked third for clearances with an average of 44 per game and third for tackles with an average of 72.
Coach Guy McKenna has his side focused on defensive pressure and now they that his players are bigger, stronger and fitter, that game style can hold up for longer.
They also have a good blend though of tough inside players with those with polish and speed on the outside. Ablett leads the way there with 15.7 uncontested possessions per game, followed by Swallow (13.7), Rischitelli (13), Prestia (12.3) and Harbrow (11.3).
Their forward line is also now stacked with talent as the Day (eight goals) and Tom Lynch (four) mature as key position forwards with better leading patterns and contested marking ability. The duo is ranked numbers one and two at the club for contested marks and Lynch is ranked seventh in the AFL in that area.
But can they stop Hawthorn’s forward line?
Gold Coast’s defence is features experienced players from other clubs – Matthew Warnock and Greg Broughton but it is from their maturing youngsters that the improvement has come from.
The Suns have actually conceded just 217 points in their first three games – the fourth lowest points against of any team this season.
The problem is Hawthorn doesn’t have just one or two avenues to goal and statistically, the fourth-best is going up against the best scoring team in the league.
The Hawks have kicked more points for than any other team this year and average 122 points per game.
Rory Thompson can play on key bigs like Jarryd Roughead or Warnock could take last year’s Coleman Medallist.
Jack Gunston and David Hale are just as dangerous as Roughead and small forward Luke Breust is currently the AFL’s leading goal kicker.
Then there’s Cyril Rioli who has been at his brilliant best in his first two games of the season.
The Hawks then also get contributions from Paul Puopolo, Isaac Smith and guys like Matt Suckling and Grant Birchall float down from half back.
The Suns defence will have their work cut out for them because there will be a plethora of goal kicking options wearing brown and gold on Saturday night.
