The form - Hawthorn
Before the bye, the Hawks were back to their best when they travelled to Adelaide and knocked off a pumped up Adelaide Crows.The victory allowed Alastair Clarkson’s team to put behind them the disappointing performance against the Kangaroos, as they re-captured their pressure game.
After just two games back from injury, Sam Mitchell is flying and showing why he’s such an important player for the Hawks, while Jack Gunston is in rare form up forward.
The form – Sydney
The Swans have won their past 12 games in a row so they couldn’t be any better placed for Saturday night’s contest.John Longmire’s team is firing on all cylinders, with midfielders Josh Kennedy and Kieren Jack in brilliant form, while Lance Franklin has been almost unstoppable up forward.
It has been the improvement though of the likes of Luke Parker and Lewis Jetta that has enabled the Swans to elevate themselves to premiership favourtism.
Recent history
The Hawks have won three of their last five matches against the Swans, however, succumbed to them in Round 8 this year.Before Sydney’s win at ANZ Stadium this year, the Swans hadn’t beaten the Hawks since the 2012 Grand Final.
The Hawks won each of the three battles between the two teams last year in rounds 7 and 23 along with the Qualifying Final.
A different Hawthorn
While the Hawks were beaten by Sydney by 19 points earlier this year, the side that takes the field on Saturday night for Hawthorn will be a far different one to the one that played at ANZ Stadium.On that occasion, the Hawks had to face an experienced Sydney with one of its most inexperienced teams of recent years.
The Hawks were without Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Brian Lake and lost Cyril Rioli just after half time.
On Saturday night, the Hawks will be boosted by the inclusion of their skipper, Hodge as well as four-time best and fairest winner, Mitchell.
In the midfield
Never has a battle of two midfields been more important than on Saturday night.With both teams boasting dangerous forward targets capable of kicking bags of goals, the outcome on Saturday night will come down to the team that gets the ball forward more than their opposition.
In fact, the two teams are evenly matched, with Hawthorn having managed just one inside 50 more than Sydney this year.
The Hawks are ranked number one in the league for forward 50s entries with 57.7 per game, while the Swans are second with 56.7.
The team who wins the footy at the clearances will have an edge and fortunately for Hawthorn, they have performed better than Sydney in that area this year.
The Hawks are ranked third in the league for centre clearances (13.4 average), while Sydney is ranked 11th with 12.5 average. Hawthorn are also ranked third for total clearances and Sydney 12th.
For Hawthorn, Jordan Lewis leads the way for clearances and centre clearances, averaging 5.5 and 2.5 per game this year, followed by skipper Hodge with 4.4 and 1.6 per game.
For Sydney, there’s no surprise that Josh Kennedy is the most damaging at the stoppages, averaging 6.7 clearances and 2.1 centre clearances, while Luke Parker is surprisingly ranked second for clearances (4.2) and Kieren Jack second for centre clearances with 1.6.
The Swans have the edge in contested footy though, ranked first in the competition, while the Hawks come in at three.
The Hawks have kicked more goals than any other side this season with 274 though, while the Swans come in at number four with 224 goals in 16 games.
That means, if the Hawks can win the battle in the midfield, it will give them the best opportunity to use their biggest weapon – their forwards.
Can Sydney stop Hawthorn’s forward line?
One of the reasons why the Swans were successful against Hawthorn in Round 8 was because they were able to contain Hawthorn’s forwards.While Jarryd Roughead and Luke Breust booted three goals each, Jack Gunston failed to hit the scoreboard as did Rioli. The Hawks had only eight individual goal kickers on the night, well below their usual output of 10 plus.
The Swans will rely on their midfield pressure to halt the quality of footy coming into Hawthorn’s star-studded forwards like they did in Round 8, while Ted Richards, Heath Grundy and Dane Rampe will again try to work as a team to stop any one-on-one contests.
The key for Hawthorn then, is to control the tempo of the game and to get their kicking game going to spot-up leading targets inside 50.
The Buddy factor
Of course, Lance Franklin is just another player in a red and white jumper the Hawks need to stop but he presents a mighty big task.Franklin has been in rare form for the Swans in the last two months and in fact has not been held goalless in any game during that time.
His run of outstanding performances began with a bag of five goals against Essendon in Round 9 and has failed to kick multiple goals in only one of those next seven games.
In the last eight weeks, Franklin has booted 32 goals from 49 scoring shots.
But if there was any team capable of stopping him, it’s the one that knows him inside and out.
The Hawks and Coach Alastair Clarkson know how Franklin plays as well as his strengths and his weaknesses and will no doubt ensure they play to those weaknesses on Saturday night.