The form – Hawthorn

The Hawks are in a good spot heading into Saturday’s game, having banked important points against the Giants, Eagles, Blues and Pies in the last month to keep their spot in the top four.

Hawthorn was below their best in terms of form and personnel for three of those games but last week’s win over the Pies was their best, now nearing full strength.

Only Sam Mitchell and Josh Gibson are unavailable for selection of the experienced players, with the depth at the club shining on game day.

The Hawks are getting an even contribution from all players, which is making it hard for senior players to get back into the side – there is strength across all lines.
 

The form – Gold Coast

The Suns are coming off their best ever win, a 40-point victory over Geelong at Metricon Stadium, so their confidence and expectation levels are as high as they’ve been since their inception.

While Gary Ablett is still their best player and is leading the way, it is now the form and contribution of players like Harley Bennell, Dion Prestia and Jaeger O’Meara that has made the Suns a more dangerous side now, more than ever.

It seems the young players love a challenge and love testing themselves against the best sides and best players in the competition, with another challenge they can’t wait for on Saturday against Hawthorn.

But they’ll have to do it without their equal second-best goal kicker this season, Brandon Matera who’s out with injury.

Recent history

Unsurprisingly, Hawthorn has won all five encounters against the Suns. The closest the Suns have come was in Round 24, 2011 when they got within nine points of the Hawks.

On that day though, Hawthorn rested a number of senior players before the finals series.

The most recent meeting was another big win to Hawthorn though, as the Hawks travelled to Metricon Stadium in Round 4 this year and took away a 99-point win.

Hawthorn’s average winning margin against the Suns is 54 points.
 

Confidence footy

Confidence is a big thing in footy and the Suns have it in copious amounts heading into Saturday’s game after their stirring win over Geelong last weekend.

It was the best win in their history and one that was on the back of an even contribution from each of the 22 players, with standout performances from some.

Harley Bennell booted a career-high six goals in a best on ground performance, while Ablett was again outstanding with 33 touches and a goal.

The Suns are almost full strength too, with goal kicker Brandon Matera the only notable absentee alongside Nathan Bock who hasn’t played in almost two years – they are on the hunt for a big scalp and believe they’re in the form to pull out a victory against Hawthorn.

Attacking Suns footy

Everyone knows Hawthorn is the best attacking team in the game but what might come as a surprise is that the Suns are ranked third in the league for points kicked this year.

While Hawthorn average is a massive 116 points per game, the Suns aren’t too far behind, with an average of 95 points in their 13 games this season.

When analysing where the improvement has come from for the Suns, who will now surprisingly to some, almost certainly play finals, it has been the ability of their forwards to mature, stand up and score from the supply of their gun midfielders.

Tom Lynch leads their goal kicking with 27 for the year, while Brandon Matera (who won’t play due to injury) and Ablett follow him on 22.

The big improver though has been key forward Charlie Dixon, who has kicked 17 goals in just nine games and is proving invaluable up forward because of the athleticism he possesses for his size, combined with his brilliant overhead marking ability.  

Impressive forward Sam Day is also dangerous and has kicked 12 goals for the year.

Importantly though, the Suns get a big contribution to their score from their midfielders, with Ablett leading the way, followed by Bennell whose six goal haul last week brings him up to 15 goals for the year.

David Swallow has also hit the score board with 11 goals for the year and Jaeger O’Meara has chipped in with seven.

For young teams the struggle can sometimes be in capitalising on the ball supply they’ve got but that’s no issue for Gold Coast this year and it’s why they have recorded so many wins and why they beat the Cats last week.

How the teams stack up

While the Suns have improved in their offensive game, their Achilles heal is their defence, where they have conceded an average of 90 points per game to their opposition – the sixth-worst record in the league.

Unfortunately for Gold Coast, while their confidence is sky high having kept Geelong – the fifth-best attacking team – to just 78 points last week, they’re battling a whole different kettle of fish on Saturday.

The Hawks have three players in the top 10 goal kickers across the league for the year – Jarryd Roughead (36), Luke Breust (35) and Jack Gunston (30) and stopping them will be a huge task.

Gunston (five) and Roughead (four) kicked nine goals between them in the 99-point win over the Suns in Round 4, while Breust and Cyril Rioli also chipped in with two each.

If you stop one Hawk forward, two or three players will step up in his place, which is why they’re able to kick such big scores each week.

Steven May and Rory Thompson are they only key defensive talls who took to the field against the Cats – they’ll need a few more options this week if they’re to also stop the likes of Ryan Schoenmakers and David Hale who also play forward.

The Ablett factor and the Suns midfield

Last time, the Hawks opted to tag Ablett with young midfielder Will Langford, who did well despite the Suns star picking up 35 touches.

Langford nullified his influence with ball in hand, rather than putting all his energy into trying to restrict the amount of time he gets it. The Hawks know that a champion like Ablett is going to get the footy regardless.

But Langford hasn’t played in three weeks; he was omitted from the side after the win over GWS, so Ablett could have Liam Shiels for company instead this time around.

Ablett of course leads the Suns in key areas like disposals, clearances and contested possessions but it is the players under him – Dion Prestia and Swallow, who are ranked two and three behind him in each area that have given the Suns midfield an edge.

The rise of the duo has only increased Ablett’s output because now sides need to pay more attention to the emerging stars. They average 29.3 and 24.5 disposals respectively, 5.7 and 4.7 clearances each and 1.8 and 1.7 centre clearances.

How they match up

The strength of Gold Coast is in their sheer speed through the midfield and in their quick ball movement but they can also do the spectacular with ball in hand such is the talent on their list.

In contrast, Hawthorn’s midfield led by Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge and Brad Sewell is dour with a sprinkles of brilliance with Isaac Smith, Bradley Hill, Shaun Burgoyne and Cyril Rioli all rolling through.

The Hawks will control the footy at their home away from home and will know the nuances of Aurora Stadium better than their opponents, and will use their kicking game to release their players into space and hit-up the forwards.

Hawthorn wins the ball and keeps control of it better than any other side (average 402 possessions per game at 73.9 per cent efficiency), while the Suns average 42 less disposals per game.

Interestingly though, the Suns win the contested footy more than any other side, ranked first in the league with a 148.2 average but the Hawks are close behind at number four with 145.5 – contested footy will play a big role in Saturday’s result, whichever team gets the ascendancy there will be able to flick it into space.

The two teams are also even in clearances, Gold Coast ranked second in the league with 41.2 and Hawthorn third on 41.

The midfield battle is key.