The form – Hawthorn
Having won five games in a row, the Hawks are one of the in-form teams in the competition having now moved past an injury-hit patch of the season.
The Hawks cruised to victory over the Suns in Launceston last Saturday, proving too strong and too classy for the league’s improvers in difficult conditions.
Captain Luke Hodge played one of his best games for the year and has hit some outstanding form, while Jordan Lewis is still playing some of the best footy of his career.
The backline is steady, having regained Brian Lake along with consistent contributions from the likes of Matt Spangher and Angus Litherland and the forward line is excelling, with Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Jarryd Roughead all consistently hitting the scoreboard.
The form – North Melbourne
After suffering a shock loss to Brisbane last Saturday night, the Roos are coming into Friday night’s game in disappointing form, having been outplayed for most of the game.
North Melbourne has been patchy at best in the last month, with their inconsistency showing in periods in most of their recent games.
They struggled to shake a persistent Melbourne in the opening half in their Round 14 match before eventually proving too strong and trailed Richmond by six goals before turning on one of the best quarter of the year to run out big winners.
A four-quarter performance, something that has proved elusive more often that not this year, will be required on Friday night.
Recent history
Hawthorn is on a four-game winning streak against the Roos but the going hasn’t been easy.
The Hawks endured two tough battles against the Roos in Rounds 5 and 22 last year, where a Hawthorn fightback was required in both matches before running out three and 14-point winners in the two encounters.
Before that, the Hawks belted the Roos by 115 points in Tasmania in Round 10, 2012.
North Melbourne hasn’t beaten Hawthorn since Round 5, 2010 when they won by 12 points at Aurora Stadium.
Giant killers?
The Roos have beaten three of the current top four teams in the competition – Port Adelaide in Melbourne, Sydney in Sydney and Fremantle in Perth.
They have been too inconsistent, however, and lost to sides beneath them like Essendon and Adelaide and they struggled to beat Richmond.
It seems they produce their best footy against the best teams and Hawthorn is one of those.
The strength of the Roos
North Melbourne’s strength lies in its midfield and the depth of talent at the fingertips of coach Brad Scott.
The midfield is led by skipper Andrew Swallow, who has made an impressive return from an Achilles injury this year, while he has been assisted well by youngsters Ryan Bastinac and Ben Cunnington who had have breakout seasons and Nick Dal Santo, Jack Ziebell, Levi Greenwood, Sam Gibson and Brent Harvey.
The Roos have pace to burn when they win the ball in space - ranked sixth in the league for uncontested possessions – and the fast deck at Etihad Stadium suits their play on at all costs game style.
They hurt their opposition on the counterattack, by turning the ball over across half-back and then spreading hard forward into space where Drew Petrie, Aaron Black and Lindsay Thomas are waiting.
Gibson has been one of their best release players this year, averaging 19.7 uncontested possessions per game, while Dal Santo is an elite ball user who will cut you up if given enough space.
The Roos love to get it into Dal Santo’s hands; particularly across half back where he is ranked second for rebound 50s with a 3.4 average per game and an uncontested possession average of 18.9.
While Bastinac and Cunnington were outstanding early in the season, their form has dropped away in the last month. Bastinac hasn’t picked up 20 possessions in the last month and Cunnington has managed that feat just once in that time.
They are also struggling in centre clearances (ranked 14th in the league), clearances (10th) and contested possessions (10th) – some of the most important areas of the game and particularly against Hawthorn.
The load at the moment is being carried by too few – Swallow, Harvey, Dal Santo and Gibson with not enough input from the duo. They’ll need to get their hands on the footy on Friday night of the Roos are a chance to win.
The tale of two conversion rates
While the Roos have a talented midfield, one area they have struggled in this year is their ability to keep possession of the ball and give their forwards the chance to score.
Despite sitting seventh on the ladder, North Melbourne are ranked 14th in the competition for forward 50 entries, ahead of only Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Melbourne and Brisbane.
The Roos average just 48.3 inside 50s per game.
In contrast, Hawthorn get the ball into their scoring zone more than any other side in the league, averaging 10 more entries than their opponents on Friday night.
The Hawks average 58 inside 50s per game and given they are also the heaviest scoring side in the league and that poses a big issue for the Roos.
Compounding North Melbourne’s battle on Friday night is that when Hawthorn does get the opportunity to score, they make the most of it.
Hawthorn convert their chances better than any other side, converting at 58.3 per, compared to North Melbourne who have converted at just 48.4 per cent.
Of course, Luke Breust has been the most dangerous for Hawthorn this year with 38.4, including 26 goals straight, while Jack Gunston has been accurate too, with 30.16.
Any time the Roos get the ball forward on Friday night, they need to score because if they don’t, Hawthorn will hurt them going the other way. They are the top team in the competition for a reason. The Hawks don’t give you a second chance.
Hawk strength an issue for Roos
As the number one scoring team in the league and the side that also gets the ball into their offensive 50 the most, Hawthorn’s firepower up forward is likely to cause a big problem for North Melbourne.
The big three – Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston and Luke Breust are in outstanding form and while the latter will likely have an Aaron Mullett type for company, the Roos don’t have many options for Roughead or Gunston.
Of course, Scott Thompson will take one – most likely Roughead – but the injury to their second-best defender; Nathan Grima is a big blow to their stocks.
Lachlan Hansen missed last week and is likely to return on Friday night but even then, the Roos love to have him play as the loose man rather than be directly responsible for a man.
Then there’s the issue of David Hale – who goes to him?
Interestingly, North Melbourne has conceded the fifth-least scores to their opposition this year, conceding an average of just 77 points but against a side averaging a massive 116 points per game, that defence will be tested in a big way.
Given they’re already undermanned, Hawthorn will look to expose the lack of height potentially inside 50. Unfortunately for the Roos, those players are also mobile and love applying pressure, so if they manage to bring it to ground to try and expose the Hawk forward, they will have their work cut out for them there, too.
