The form line – Hawthorn
The Hawks flexed their muscles against the Bombers in last Friday night’s top-of-the-table clash in one of the side’s best performances of 2013.
Alastair Clarkson’s team convincingly best Essendon in all areas, with their pressure, ability to force turnovers and ball use far superior to that of the Bombers.
Hawthorn has high expectations though, and despite defeating the side second on the ladder at the time by 56 points, they weren’t satisfied.
Cyril Rioli and Brian Lake both believe that performance wasn’t the team’s best of the year, and Clarkson revealed post-match that the Hawks are yet to reach their peak.
It’s a scary thought for the rest of the competition given Hawthorn are 14-2 and the envy of the competition with its dynamic forward line led by Coleman Medal leader Jarryd Roughead and Lance Franklin fresh off an eight-goal performance.
The Hawks midfield is hitting its straps now too, with Sam Mitchell in good form playing across half back and in the midfield, Jordan Lewis hitting his straps and veteran, Brad Sewell finding form after being dropped in Round 16.
Isaac Smith is also in good form as one of his team’s best running weapon and Josh Gibson and Brian Lake continue to gel and form a formidable duo down back along with Ben Stratton.
The form line – Richmond
The Tigers have improved again this season and have shown a resilience that has been absent from the Richmond sides of recent years.
When challenged, the Tigers now have the leadership through Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio and Chris Newman to name a few to provide the leadership the side needs to hit back when its opposition is pressing.
That ability was evident against the Dockers two weeks ago, when Fremantle challenged the Tigers in the last quarter of the Round 17 clash at the MCG.
The Dockers got within eight points in the final term, but Richmond steadied to eventually run out 27 point winners and entrench itself in the top eight.
Against the Swans last weekend, however, the Tigers were exposed by Sydney’s relentless pressure and elite ball use through the midfield.
Coach Damian Hardwick said his team simply weren’t hard enough against the Swans and will be looking to show more aggression against the Hawks on Saturday, keen to underline its finals credentials by claiming a big scalp.
In season 2013, the Tigers have beaten only two teams currently in the top eight – Fremantle and Port Adelaide.
The worry for the Tigers
It’s the worry for most sides, but for Richmond, the Hawthorn forward line is a scary proposition.
While Troy Chaplin is capable of playing on a player like Jarryd Roughead or Lance Franklin and performing admirably, the options dry up pretty quickly after that for the Tigers.
Alex Rance is a solid defender, he performs his role to the best of his ability each week, but the face remains, he is an undersized defender playing above his weight division.
Never has that been more evident than when Rance was given the job on Collingwood’s Travis Cloke in Round 4.
The Pies forward monstered Rance to be the match-winner, booting a game-high seven goals in Collingwood’s win.
Unfortunately for Richmond, they have two Travis Cloke’s to contend with on Saturday, with Roughead and Franklin both heavyweight forwards in red-hot form.
The pair have kicked 54 and 46 goals respectively, not to mention the cameo played by Jack Gunston (29 goals) as the third tall forward and ruckman David Hale (13 goals) who also spends time forward for the Hawks.
The Tigers struggled to contain Sydney’s Jesse White (four goals) and Kurt Tippett (three) last week, and the task is probably greater this weekend against the Hawks.
Contested footy
Damian Hardwick said last week the Tigers weren’t hard enough, beaten in the contested footy by the reigning premiers and they’ll need to be better in that area against the Hawks on Saturday.
The Tigers are actually ranked 15th in the competition for contested footy, ahead of only lowly teams St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne.
Richmond average 136.2 contested possessions per game this season and were down on that average against the Swans last Sydney with 130 (Sydney had 144).
It is a worry statistic for the Tigers who will again be up against one of the best contested footy sides in the competition on Saturday.
The Hawks are ranked fourth in the league with an average of 147.2 contested possessions per game and it’s little wonder it’s an area of strength for the Hawks when Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis and Luke Hodge all roll through the midfield.
Captain Trent Cotchin is the number one contested footy player at the Tigers with an average of 12.1 per game and interestingly, slightly built half forward, Shane Edwards is ranked second with 9.9.
When analysing the contested footy numbers of Richmond, they're actually quite alarming.
Cotchin is the only player at Richmond to this season average more than 10 contested possessions per game.
Dustin Martin, considered a player who loves it tough, averages 7.6 and even Shane Tuck averages only 9.5 this season.
If Hawthorn beat-up the Tigers in the contested ball, expect to see a big Hawthorn win at the MCG on Saturday.
Why pressure is important for Richmond
Hawthorn plays a style of footy that is conducive to finals, they play hard and tough, they love the contest and gritty battles in the midfield – then they use that to get their uncontested game going, to work the footy into space.
Saturday’s game will be a big test for Richmond given their style is freer flowing.
Richmond is, interestingly, ranked 18th in the competition for tackles, averaging only 56 per game. They will need to be better than that against the Hawks, given they lost the tackle count to the Swans last week despite losing by 47 points.
Essendon gave Hawthorn too much space last Friday night, and the ball use of the Hawks cut the Bombers to pieces.
Hawthorn run at an average disposal efficiency of 73.1 per cent across its 17 games this season, so when they’re allowed time and space, there’s no turning it over.
That fact has never been more evident than against the Bombers last week, as the Hawks midfielders delivered the footy to Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead on a silver platter.
If Richmond doesn’t close down Hawthorn’s space on Saturday through manic pressure, then the Hawks will slice through their defence and kick another big score.
Why pressure is important for Hawthorn
Richmond are a young side, their players haven’t yet had the experience of playing in finals where every possession is under pressure and that’s where the key lies for Hawthorn.
Richmond have elite ball users and use the footy very well, in fact, are ranked third in the league for disposal efficiency, but when the pressure is on, their decision making and skill execution is the first to suffer.
North Melbourne identified that as a weakness in Round 15, when the two sides met at Etihad Stadium.
While the tackle count said the Kangaroos laid only 62 tackles, that wasn’t anywhere near a true reflection of how the Roos pressured the Tigers into submission.
North Melbourne always had two or three extra players at the contest because their work rate was far superior to that of Richmond and as a consequence, whenever the Tigers gained possession, they were beset upon and turned the ball over.
Richmond kicking efficiency ran at a very low 61.5 during that game, had 42 clangers and just 50 effective kicks for the game.
Although Richmond had more inside 50s, Jack Riewoldt was ineffective as a forward because of the poor ball use going forward thanks to the pressure and ability of the Roos to get numbers back.
Richmond took only nine marks inside 50 for the game and kicked 8.18 not because of poor execution, but because each of their shots was under immense pressure and from tight angles.
Key players
Hawthorn –
Sam Mitchell: Fans and media commentators were left last Friday night only to marvel in the genius that is Sam Mitchell. He sliced through the Essendon midfield with ease and set up players into space on numerous occasions as well as delivering lace out to his forwards. His “ quickstep” move to evade an opponent is exemplary, and Richmond players will need to be aware of how he does it. If he gets off the leash, Hawthorn will win. It’s as simple as that.
Richmond –
Brett Deledio: Too often, it seems that gun Richmond midfielder Brett Deledio is tagged out of matches. Again against the Swans last week, Deledio was sat on by a tagger and had no influence over the game. His importance to Richmond is almost unparalleled given his line-breaking ability makes him an 80+ metre player. Against a team like Hawthorn who can strangle you, players like Deledio are a dime a dozen. He’ll need to find a way to break the tag if a Hawks player goes to him.