The form – Hawthorn
The Hawks enjoyed last weekend off and should be refreshed and ready for an epic Preliminary Final will everything on the line.
The Qualifying Final win over Sydney two weeks ago was powerful – withstanding the Sydney pressure and intensity in the first half before slicing through their defence with precise kicking and brilliant connection between the midfielders and forwards.
A solid week on the track last week should hold the side in good stead along with the mental break the players received last week.
Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell, Shaun Burgoyne, Brian Lake, Josh Gibson – all the stars played well against the Swans and the impressive performances from the likes of Liam Shiels, Jed Anderson, Jack Gunston, Bradley Hill and Isaac Smith means the side is in good shape and good touch heading into Friday night.
The form – Geelong
For many it was touted as the unlosable final – playing Fremantle in a home final at Simonds Stadium. But the unthinkable happened, and the Cats were overrun by a ferocious Fremantle who had clearly set themselves for the game.
The Cats, for the first time in a long time were outplayed and outlasted by their opponents, something they managed to turn around in the Semi Final against Port Adelaide.
Though trailing by 23 points at half time, the Cats flexed their muscles in the second half and sent a message to the Hawks by showing they’ve still got their explosive ability to score quickly and turn the game.
The Cats kicked 10 goals to five in the second half and were led to victory by Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel, Steve Johnson, James Kelly and Steven Motlop. If their form in the second half of that game is anything to go by, Friday night’s Preliminary Final will be one of the best in recent history.
Stars back, stars out
The news at selection for both teams are at opposition ends of the spectrum, with the Cats losing Paul Chapman to suspension and officially ruling out a return for star veteran defender Corey Enright. Tom Hawkins too, remains in doubt as he continues to battle a bulging disc in his back.
At Hawthorn, the news is different, with star forward Lance Franklin a certainty to return from a one-week suspension and Cyril Rioli also ready to return after missing Round 22 and the Qualifying Final against Sydney.
The streak
Friday night’s Preliminary Final is a dream match-up for the media who continue to speculate about Geelong’s winning streak over the Hawks and with a Grand Final at stake, the match-up is one made in heaven.
The Hawks haven’t beaten the Cats in 11 attempts, but with a Grand Final spot on the line, there is no need to get caught up in talk of curses or streaks. Finals are a different ball game and what better time to perform than in this game.
As we saw last season, winning streaks mean nothing in finals as the Swans finally broke their losing streak against Collingwood stretching all the way back to 2005. The Swans beat the Pies in the Preliminary Final and went on to win the flag.
With a Grand Final at stake, nothing else matters.
In the midfield
The midfield battle is the key to any game but in finals and when you pit Geelong and Hawthorn against one another, that battle becomes even more important.
The Hawks and Cats were the two best offensive teams over the home and away season, with their capacity to score under any circumstance almost unrivalled such is the number of options present inside 50 for both teams.
So, when you’ve got two prolific forward lines at either end of the ground, it becomes imperative to win the midfield battle to allow your forwards the opportunity to score and as such, when it’s in your forward line, it’s not in theirs and their forwards can’t score.
The depth of each midfield group is deep. At Hawthorn there’s Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis, Isaac Smith, Cyril Rioli, Bradley Hill, Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston, Shaun Burgoyne, Luke Hodge, Luke Breust and even Lance Franklin all rolling through the midfield in any one game.
For Geelong, it’s Joel Selwood, Joel Corey, James Kelly, Matthew Stokes, Steve Johnson, Steven Motlop, Allen Christensen, Andrew Mackie, Jimmy Bartel, Mitch Duncan, Travis Varcoe and Taylor Hunt who roll through the midfield.
Interestingly though, the Cats were ranked eighth of the eight finals teams in week one of the finals for clearances, with just 22 for the game against the Dockers who had 43. They were smashed in the middle.
The Hawks too lost the clearances against Sydney – the best clearance team all year, 31-45.
But the all-important contested footy numbers were in the Cats’ favour with 139 against the Dockers (150) compared to Hawthorn’s 133 to Sydney’s 139.
But, the Hawks had more possessions overall than any other side with 407 against the Swans and the Cats the second-most with 362 against the Dockers. Both teams have no trouble winning the footy.
The Hawkins issue
The issue with Tom Hawkins’ back has been much publicised, with the management of his injury a day-to-day prospect, he could wake up one day perfect and the next in agony.
His condition can’t get any worse according to Geelong, which is why he’s been able to continue playing but at what capacity that is in a do or die Preliminary Final, we’ll have to wait and see.
He didn’t play against the Dockers in the Qualifying Final and had only eight disposals and took only three marks against the Power. He did kick two goals though that output is well below his best.
The problem is too, for the Cats that his forward partner, James Podsiadly isn’t in the best form based on his Semi Final performance. J-Pod had only five disposals against Port Adelaide, took only three marks and failed to kick a goal.
The Cats will be hoping he can find the form he showed against the Dockers when he had 13 touches and had five shots on goal for a return of 3.2.
Unfortunately for Geelong and their two key forwards, they’ll be up against a defensive pair that continues to blanket their opponents. Josh Gibson and Brian Lake are in great form for the Hawks and Lake in particular, had a great game against the Swans, restricting in-form Swans forward Kurt Tippett to just eight disposals and two goals.
Luke Hodge
The inspirational Hawthorn skipper saves his best for the finals and he showed that against the Swans two weeks ago.
Hodge was best afield for the Hawks as a midfielder/defender. Time and time again he put his body on the line, with no consideration for his own safety he never once thought about what might be coming in the other direction.
He had 24 disposals and took eight marks but it is more his leadership and to lead by virtue of his actions that has the most impact for the Hawks.
He lifts his teammates by his courageous acts and determination to achieve success.
Interestingly, he was allowed to take charge of Hawthorn’s back 50 by the Swans and many believe the Cats won’t allow the same to occur.
Time will tell.
How they perform against each other
The Hawks and Cats have had many well documented close encounters, so who have been the stars for both teams in those matches?
Hawthorn –
Sam Mitchell enjoys playing against the Cats, averaging 25.65 disposals and 4.3 clearances against them in 20 matches.
In his last two games against the Cats he gathered 36 and 37 disposals, he has no issues finding the footy against them. That makes his average in his last five matches against Geelong 29.2 and 5.4 clearances (including 10 clearances in Round 19 last year).
Luke Hodge actually doesn’t have the best record overall against Geelong, with an average of 19.69 touches (seven less than his best), though he was best on ground in the biggest and most important match between the two sides, the 2008 Grand Final.
That average has dropped to 16.6 in his last five games against them, though he didn’t play Geelong in Round 1 this year and played them only once last year in his second game back from a knee injury.
Lance Franklin averages only 2.6 goals against the Cats, having kicked 40 goals in 15 matches against them. That is 14 goals less than his best against Collingwood and 10 less than his return against Essendon.
He has had a number of good battles with Tom Lonergan in recent years and had kicked just three goals against the Cats this year.
His best most recent game against them was a four-goal haul in the Qualifying Final in 2011.
Geelong –
The achievements of Joel Selwood have been well documented. Whenever the Cats need at spark against the Hawks, it is Selwood who steps up and leads from the front but that is really, just the norm for him.
In fact though, Selwood has almost his best record against the Hawks than any other team, averaging 28.46 touches in 13 matches against them, just 0.42 behind his best, which is against Melbourne. He also averages five clearances.
In his last three matches against the Hawks though, he has gathered 34, 33 and 29 touches, a pretty impressive record.
A key player for the Cats and their ability to set up attacks from half back is Andrew Mackie. Unfortunately though, his record against Hawthorn is almost his worst.
Mackie averages only 16.88 touches against Hawthorn but he has improved that the last two times he has faced the Hawks.
He had 22 against the Hawks in Round 15 and 25 in Round 1 but overall, his disposal average against the Hawks has dropped to just 13.2 in his last five matches.
To put that into context – his disposal average this year is 21.1.
Jimmy Bartel has a solid record against all teams in the competition, with just five disposals between his best and worst record against sides.
He averages 22.83 disposals and 3.4 clearances in 18 matches against the Hawks and looms as a key figure in the outcome of Friday night’s Preliminary Final.
