The formline – Hawthorn
The Hawks have won 11 in a row, but their most recent win against the Blues last Friday night was less than convincing.
Carlton denied the Hawks the footy, and restricted its ability to generate run from half back. That caused Hawthorn real trouble, given it so often relies on its half backs like Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson and Ben Stratton to counterattack when there’s a turnover.
Coming off the bye weekend, the Hawks appeared sluggish despite booting the opening three goals of the game. The Hawks struggled to kick consecutive goals, twice conceding multiple goals to the Blues.
Arguably, Hawthorn hasn’t played its best football for a month. The Hawks have played Greater Western Sydney, Gold Coast, Melbourne and Carlton in its last four matches and in each of those, have allowed its opposition to control the game for a quarter or more.
The most noteable was against the Suns in Round 9, when the Hawks were outplayed and outhunted by Gold Coast to trail by 17 points midway through the third term. Then, against the Demons, the Hawks were outscored four goals to two in the third quarter despite a handsome three-quarter time lead.
Against a dangerous West Coast, the Hawks will be looking for a consistent effort across four quarters as it looks to secure its 11th win in a row.
The formline – West Coast
Many predicted at the start of the season that West Coast would be the team to beat – likely to finish on top of the AFL ladder and then from there, expected to play off in the Grand Final.
Injuries and form struggles have meant the season has panned out much differently for John Worsfold and his team.
The Eagles are yet to beat a side sitting above it on the ladder and currently sit outside the top eight on percentage.
They have lost four out of five matches at Subiaco and were comfortably beaten by Richmond three weeks ago on their home deck.
A narrow win against the struggling Saints at Etihad Stadium in Round 11 have kept them in touch with the eight and in finals contention, but they’ll be up against it against the Hawks on Friday night.
Luckily, Worsfold is slowly regaining his best side, with at least four key players likely to return for Friday night’s clash. Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras, Darren Glass and Beau Waters are expected to return for Friday night, while key defender Will Schofield is also a chance to return.
The inclusions of those players – all missing against the Saints will give the Eagles a boost, but it will need to re-capture the manic pressure for which it became renowned in 2012 if they’re to challenge the Hawks away from home.
Under performing Eagle goal kickers
On paper, West Coast has one of the most dangerous and versatile forward lines in the competition, but the return in which Coach Worsfold is getting from his players inside 50 suggests otherwise.
Spearhead Josh Kennedy has kicked 34 goals for the season to be the side’s leading goal kicker and Jack Darling 26 is ranked second.
Small forward Josh Hill is third on the team’s leader board with 18 and Mark LeCras has 17 for the season from nine matches.
So the problem the Eagles have isn’t with the players who spend most of the time inside forward 50, it’s more with the players who roll through the forward line.
After the top four on the leader board, the goal tallies fall away dramatically, with Dean Cox the next best contributor with nine goals and Luke Shuey and Ashton Hams equal sixth with seven each.
The Eagles simply aren’t getting enough scoring power from its midfielders.
Last year, the Eagles had one of the best spread of goal kickers with Cox booting 28, Nic Naitanui 24, Hams 22, Chris Masten 20, Daniel Kerr 13 and Shannon Hurn 12.
This year, Cox has kicked only seven so far, Naitanui six (albeit in six games), Masten five and Kerr three. Hurn has kicked just one goal this season.
The Eagles are ranked eighth in the league for goals scored with 163 – an average of 14.8 per game and it’s little wonder why they’re struggling given the scoring output of its midfielders.
Compare that with Hawthorn who are ranked number one with 195 at an average of 17.7 per game.
Hawthorn’s team defence
If scoring more goals from its midfielders is a second-half goal for Coach Worsfold and his team, the
Task doesn’t get any easier this week.
Hawthorn puts an emphasis on team defence – with each and every player on the ground intent on
applying pressure on the opposition.
Take Paul Puopolo for example – his role in the side is almost exclusively to apply pressure by using his speed and ability to get from contest to contest.
Then, there’s guys like Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead who love laying a tackle just as much as they love kicking a goal from 50.
Mix that with a backline of Josh Gibson, Brian Lake, Ben Stratton, Grant Birchall, Brent Guerra and Luke Hodge, and you’ve got a difficult task in front of you.
It’s little wonder why Hawthorn is one of the hardest teams to score against in the competition – having conceded only 897 points in 11 matches. That’s an average of 81 per game, the third least in the competition.
In the midfield
The battle in the midfield is the key in any game, but on Friday night, the side that gets on top in the middle is likely to apply a heap of pressure on its opposition.
Hawthorn was badly beaten in the clearances by the Blues last week, with a differential of 19. Consequently, Carlton was able to move the ball quickly into its forward line, restricting Hawthorn’s ability to apply its team defence.
The Blues had 50 inside 50s and managed to kick 13 goals for the game from 22 scoring shots – only five other teams have kicked 13 or more against Hawthorn this season.
The Hawks will be keen to bounce back around the stoppages this week and improve its league ranking of seven for clearances.
Unfortunately for the Hawks, however, they’ll be facing one of the best clearance sides in the competition.
The Eagles have two dominant ruckmen in Cox and Natianui and some of the best midfielders at their feet with Matt Priddis, Scott Selwood, Daniel Kerr, Andrew Gaff and Luke Shuey all rolling through the midfield.
No wonder they’re ranked second in the league behind only Sydney for clearances with an average of 41 per game.
If the Eagles get on top in the middle, it will give their forwards the chance to do what they do best and given they have three genuine stars inside 50, getting smashed at the clearances is not an option for the Hawks.
By the numbers
Despite its ranking for clearances, the Eagles are ranked 10th in the league for contested possessions. They are undoubtedly down on their attack on the football this season, and that ranking is the evidence despite having high quality in and under players in its 22.
Hawthorn on the other hand are ranked second in the league in the stat, never wavering in their intensity around the ball.
The Hawks are also still ranked number one in the competition for uncontested possessions, the best side at running hard into space and getting it to those players effectively.
Interestingly, the Eagles are ranked 17th in the league for uncontested possessions, probably evidencing why it has struggled this season given the lack of speed in the side.
The Eagles also don’t win the footy enough – ranked 17th in the league for disposals and when they do get it, they generally don’t use it well, ranked 18th for disposal efficiency at 69.6 per cent.
Hawthorn on the other hand have no such troubles – ranked second in the league for disposals and first for disposal efficiency at 73.6 per cent. They rarely waste it and when they get so much of the ball, it’s little wonder why they’ve won 10 consecutive matches.
Key players
Hawthorn –
Luke Breust: Breust is now receiving more attention from defenders, such has been his impressive form in the last 18 months. He had a quiet game against the Blues, but will be looking to bounce back on Friday night. The Eagles have quality key backs capable of shutting down Franklin and Roughead, so Breust’s ability to hit the score board will be important.
David Hale: With West Coast boasting two of the best ruckmen in the league, Hale has an important job as a relief ruckman for the Hawks on Friday night. Cox and Naitanui push forward, but so does Hale. If he can get on the end of a few inside 50 early, the Eagles pair will need to focus a little more of their defensive game.
Ben Stratton: One of Hawthorn’s most consistent defenders, Stratton puts his body on the line week in, week out and has developed a nice attacking game to his solid defence. He changed the complexion of the game with his ability to read the play against the Blues last week. He is a very important player for the Hawks.
West Coast –
Andrew Embley: The Eagles lack pace, but Embley, despite his age is still one of West Coast’s best runners on the outside. If he can play a role on the wing or as a high half forward and provide a bit of spark, the Eagles might be able to push through Hawthorn’s team defence.
Mark LeCras: LeCras is a small forward, but he plays a lot taller than his height suggests. He poses an interesting match-up headache for Alastair Clarkson, who will likely opt for Ben Stratton to stand him. LeCras can take a mark overhead and is good on the ground, Stratton can defend both.
Josh Kennedy: Kennedy kicked five goals in the Round 2 clash between the two sides and again will be West Coast’s key target up forward. Josh Gibson could get the job, and he’s in fine form for the Hawks. Kennedy is agile and works up the ground, but could Worsfold be better served playing him out of the goal square?
