WITH Hawthorn star Lance Franklin set to miss Friday night's qualifying final against the Sydney Swans through suspension, fellow forward Jack Gunston now looms as a key figure in the clash.
Used as a third tall target who can also push up the ground when Franklin is in the line-up, statistics show Gunston becomes more of a focal point when the four-time All Australian is not around.
Since crossing from Adelaide ahead of the 2012 season, the 21-year-old has booted 26 goals in the nine games Franklin has missed, at an average of 2.9 per game.
In his other 30 games for the Hawks – played alongside Franklin – he has averaged just 1.6 goals per game.
And it's easy to see why.
In the three games Franklin has watched from the sidelines in 2013, Hawthorn players have kicked to Gunston inside forward 50 an average of 5.3 times – a significant jump on the 2.2 times they've kicked to him when Franklin has played.
Not surprisingly, Coleman medallist Jarryd Roughead has also become a more frequent target, used nine times per game when Franklin hasn't played, compared to 5.9 times per game when Franklin has.
Overall, the Hawks should feel confident of kicking a winning score on Friday night, given they have won 11 of 12 games without their West Australian superstar since the start of 2010.
In that time, they've averaged 127.9 points without him, compared to 104.8 points with him.
They've also averaged more marks inside forward 50 without Franklin (15.9) than with him (13.1).
However, as the table shows, few of the Franklin-less matches have been against top quality opposition.
Only one – the 47-point win over Collingwood in round 17 last year – was against a top-four team, and five were against teams ranked 14th or worse.
AVERAGE NUMBER OF KICKS DIRECTED TOWARDS PLAYER INSIDE FORWARD 50 PER GAME
PLAYER
| WITH BUDDY | WITHOUT BUDDY (THREE MATCHES) | CHANGE |
Lance Franklin
| 8.8 | NA | NA |
Jarryd Roughead
| 5.9 | 9.0 | +3.1 |
Luke Breust
| 2.9
| 3.3 | +0.4 |
Jack Gunston
| 2.2
| 5.3 | +3.1 |
David Hale
| 2.2
| 2.0 | -0.2 |
Cyril Rioli
| 2.0
| 2.7 | +0.7 |
HAWTHORN'S LAST 12 GAMES WITHOUT BUDDY
MATCH
| OPPONENT | OPPONENT'S LADDER POSITION | RESULT |
R20, 2013 | St Kilda | 16th | Won by 46 |
R17, 2013 | Western Bulldogs | 15th | Won by 19 |
R16, 2013 | Port Adelaide | 8th | Won by 45 |
R21, 2012 | Gold Coast | 17th | Won by 64 |
R20, 2012 | Port Adelaide | 14th | Won by 72 |
R19, 2012 | Geelong | 6th | Lost by 2 |
R18, 2012 | Essendon | 6th | Won by 94 |
R17, 2012 | Collingwood | 3rd | Won by 47 |
R16, 2012 | Western Bulldogs | 14th | Won by 72 |
R14, 2011 | Essendon | 8th | Won by 65 |
R11, 2011 | Fremantle | 8th | Won by 22 |
R16, 2010 | Brisbane Lions | 12th | Won by 75 |