The form line – Hawthorn

Hawthorn are coming off an indifferent few weeks having lost to the Tigers and a lacklustre performance against the Saints last Friday night.

The Hawks were well beaten in contested footy and clearances against the Tigers, and that trend continued in the opening term against the Saints, losing both areas convincingly in the opening term.

They were able to turn that around in the remaining three quarters, however, and in the end run out 41-point winners, despite being painfully inaccurate in front of goal.

While some believe the Pies are getting the Hawks at the “right time” given their recent form, but it’s more likely the Hawks have had their eye on the testing final three weeks of the home-and-away season and have been building towards a big finish to sew up a home final.

The form line – Collingwood

Unlike Hawthorn, the Pies have put together their best two games of the year in consecutive weeks, with big wins over Essendon and premiership fancies the Swans last Saturday night.

Collingwood’s midfield is in exceptional form, with Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury, Luke Ball and Dayne Beams all gathering 30 or more disposals against the Swans last weekend.

The manic pressure that took Collingwood to a premiership in 2010 and a Grand Final in 2011 is back and their forward line is in good form, having kicked 100 points against one of the best defensive groups in the competition.

A question mark remains over Collingwood, however, given the inconsistent nature of their season. How good is their form and can they bring their best against the season’s ladder-leaders? Time will tell.

Recent history

Despite Collingwood being one of the league’s premier teams over the last three or four seasons, the Hawks have undoubtedly had the wood over them.

The Hawks have won the past four meetings between the two sides by an average of 40.5 points, but their winning record against the Pies stretches back further than that.

Hawthorn has had the wood over Collingwood since 2008, winning eight of the past 11 clashes between the two sides and, by big margins.

Since 2008, the Hawks have defeated the Magpies by 54, 65, 45, 3, 38, 47, 22 and most recently, 55 points in Round 3 this season.

Collingwood’s midfield

The reason behind Collingwood’s marked improvement in the last two weeks is simply on the back of the output of the stars in their midfield.

Dayne Beams is now four matches into his comeback from a quad injury that kept him out of the first 15 weeks of the season.

In those four games, Beams has averaged 31 disposals and been consistently named in the Pies’ best players.

His inclusion, along with the improvement of hard-nosed in and under midfielder Luke Ball also returning from injury has relieved the load placed on Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury.

Swan and Pendlebury have had excellent seasons, averaging 31.6 and 29.6 disposals respectively, but their impact on games is magnified when they’ve got players of the ilk of Beams and Ball around them.

The positive effect the inclusions of Beams and Ball has also stems to second-tier players like Steele Sidebottom who now can play across half back instead of exclusively in the midfield and Jarryd Blair who can player across half forward.

Both Sidebottom and Blair have had their best games of the year in recent weeks, since Beams and Ball have come into the side.

Sidebottom has arguably the player that has most benefitted, averaging 27.4 disposals and 1.6 goals per game since Round 16, Beams’ first game of the year.

The Cloke factor

Travis Cloke is one of the best forwards in the game and he’s enjoyed playing against the Hawks in recent times, despite his team struggling overall against Hawthorn.

In his last two games against Hawthorn, Cloke has kicked a combined 11 goals – five in Round 3 and six in the Qualifying Final last year.

The Collingwood forward is in good form at present, although his goal kicking has let him down at various times.

He has kicked a team-high 55 goals so far this season and is up there in the race for the Coleman Medal and of late, has benefitted from the move of Ben Reid forward.

The defender turned forward has provided the Pies with another dangerous option inside forward 50, relieved the pressure on Cloke’s shoulders and allowed the Magpies to not be so Cloke conscious.

Reid has kicked 16 goals since he was moved into the forward line against Carlton in Round 15.

Alastair Clarkson will be glad he recruited Brian Lake to the Club, given the form of the Collingwood pair. He has the luxury of rotating he and Josh Gibson on Cloke and Reid and various stages of the game, depending on where they’re playing inside 50.

The Buddy factor

If Lance Franklin is cleared to return from hamstring tightness on Friday night, history says the dynamic Hawks forward will have a day out against the Pies.

Franklin has kicked 50 goals in 12 games against Collingwood, an average of 4.2 goals per game – the equal highest amount of goals kicked against any opposition in his career, along with 50 against the Bombers.

Most recently, the Hawks star booted four goals in the Round 3 clash between the two sides and also kicked four in the Qualifying Final last season.

The last time he returned from injury too, he kicked eight goals.

He is a scary proposition for the Collingwood defence who had their troubled with Swans big man Kurt Tippett last weekend.

Tippett’s height and size worried Collingwood and more specifically, full back Nathan Brown who couldn’t find a way to defend the forward without giving away a free kick.

Youngster Lachie Keeffe was moved onto Tippett early in the third quarter and kept him to one goal, though he was starved of opportunity in the last quarter and a half given the dominance of Collingwood in the last part of that game.

Franklin does play differently to Tippett and Brown will most likely get first crack at Franklin on Friday night, although don’t be surprised to see Keeffe stand Buddy at the first bounce.

Midfield battle

The team that wins the midfield battle on Friday night will likely go on and win the game, given the potency of the forward lines on both sides.

We’ve already spoken about the Collingwood midfield and how dangerous they are, but equally as dangerous are those who roll through the middle for the Hawks.

Sam Mitchell is a superstar in every sense of the word and has been again one of Hawthorn’s best this season.

He loves playing against Collingwood too, averaging 27.67 disposals in 18 matches against Collingwood (the second most average against a team other than Gold Coast and GWS). He gets more clearances against Collingwood than any other team, an average of 7.1 per game and gets his hand on the ball first against the Pies, averaging 11.8 contested possessions per game.

Captain Luke Hodge, if he returns from a fractured thumb will also be playing against a side in which he has an impressive record.

Hodge averages 26.23 possessions in 13 matches against Collingwood, the most against every team in the AFL aside from expansion club Gold Coast and also averages 5.5 clearances against them – his best return against any side.

Jordan Lewis has had some of his best games against Collingwood too, most notably his five-goal performance as a defensive forward on Heath Shaw in the Round 17 game last year.

For Collingwood, Dane Swan enjoys playing the Hawks, averaging 29 touches in 16 games against them, also his second-best return against any side other than the expansion clubs. He also wins the most clearances against Hawthorn, an average of 5.9 per game against Hawthorn.

Interestingly, Scott Pendlebury averages 26.6 disposals against the Hawks – ranked fifth best against clubs other than Gold Coast and GWS.

Dayne Beams and Steele Sidebottom have both struggled against Hawthorn in their short careers. Beams has a stellar record against most clubs, but averages only 22.83 against Hawthorn in six matches.

Sidebottom is in a similar boat, averaging 21.88 against the Hawks in eight matches, ranked seventh against teams other than the expansion clubs.

Key players

Hawthorn –

Cyril Rioli: The Hawks dynamo has battled inconsistent form since returning from a hamstring injury and will be keen to turn that form around against a side he has, historically, played well against. Rioli is in the side to apply pressure and against Collingwood, that ability is important given their dangerous players off half back. The game could come down to who has the most x-factor, and Rioli has that in spades.

Collingwood –

Brent Macaffer: Macaffer has been moulded into a tagger for Collingwood this season and has performed well on some of the premier players in the competition. Last week, he took down Sydney’s Kieran Jack and held him to just 14 disposals and he’ll be relied upon to perform a role on Friday night. Sam Mitchell is the logical match-up there, with Macaffer able to match him for strength in the clinches.