Hawthorn is on the road in Round 6, flying to Adelaide to take on the Crows at AAMI Stadium on Saturday in a match sure to attract plenty of attention, but not for the right reasons.
The attention will be on the Crows and how Coach Brenton Sanderson aims to rejig his forward line in the absence of star forward, Taylor Walker.
The form line
The Hawks have won four in a row, but its win over North Melbourne in Round 5 was gutsy, rather than the polished display fans have come to expect from the Hawks.
Alastair Clarkson’s men were beaten in most of the key indicators, including contested possession, clearances and inside 50s on Sunday but still managed to walk away from the MCG with four points in its back pocket.
That speaks volumes about the type of side the Hawks have built, able to claim victory from the jaws of defeat, when it’s being outplayed by its opposition it can still find a way to win.
Aside from being in the key stats in Round 5, the Hawks have again made a reputation for themselves as being a team that wins the contested footy, wins the clearances, gets the football inside 50 more than most and applies pressure to achieve that and give it the best chance to score.
At least that was the case in its victories over West Coast, Collingwood and Fremantle.
Adelaide on the other hand has battled indifferent form to start the season, all beginning with a shock loss to the Bombers on home turf in Round 1. It got its first win on the board against the Lions with a hard-fought win in Round 2 before another shock loss in the Showdown against the Power.
Then, in wet conditions the Crows trounced the Bulldogs at AAMI Stadium, proving it still has the ability to completely shut down its opposition through pressure while scoring heavily themselves. The Crows beat the Dogs by 52 points.
After losing Taylor Walker in the opening term of its most recent match against the Blues in Round 5, the Crows looked to be on their way to a demoralising defeat, before grinding its teeth and showing appetite for the contest and the desire to never give up.
The loss of Taylor Walker
The Crows will be without their spearhead for the remainder of the 2013 season after Walker ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament in the opening term of his team’s loss to Carlton last Saturday.
It is a massive blow for Coach Brenton Sanderson, given he has already lost Kurt Tippett to the Sydney Swans and his key position stocks have been ravaged by the introduction of the expansion teams.
In the past three years, the Crows have lost Tippett, Phil Davis and Nathan Bock – all players capable of filling a void up forward.
Now, its stocks are stretched and it will most liklely turn to youngster Shaun McKernan and Josh Jenkins to be the two-pronged tall targets inside 50.
Luckily for the Crows, McKernan booted five goals in the SANFL last weekend, meaning he is in good goal kicking form. The big man is capable of taking a big grab and is more than capable of having an impact up the ground because of his athleticism.
Running half back Andy Otten was thrown forward by his coach against the Blues and kicked a career-best three goals, he could also find himself as a forward target on Saturday.
Medium forward Jason Porplyzia is also likely to be recalled after being dropped from the side in Round 5, while veteran Graham Johncock also performed well in the SANFL with five goals.
What does it mean for the Hawthorn backline?
If the Crows elect to bring in McKernan, a 196cm and 99kg forward to partner Jenkins, not much will need to change in terms of backline structure for the Hawks.
The Hawks defence has two pillars – Josh Gibson and Brian Lake who will both have key position forwards capable of kicking goals to stand on Saturday.
Defensive Coach Luke Beveridge and Clarkson could have their work cut out for them when preparing to face the Adelaide forward line, given it actually has a good mix of tall, small and medium forwards all capable of kicking goals.
If Porplyzia is recalled for the Crows, he brings with him the reputation of providing a headache for opposition coaches given he is just as good overhead as he is on the ground while former Saint Tom Lynch is a medium forward who can push up the ground and take a nice mark.
Rest assured, the Hawthorn coaching staff won’t be taking the formation of the Crows’ forward line for granted without Walker, given it still possesses a number of dangerous options.
On the stats sheet
Statistically, the Crows and Hawks match up well but there are two key areas in which the Crows have struggled so far this season and Brenton Sanderson would be concerned given his side is playing one of the best pressure sides in the competition and best disposers of the football in the league on Saturday.
The Crows are ranked 18th in the competition for disposal efficiency and 14th for total disposals so far this season. That means, that the Crows have trouble winning the football and when they do get it, they struggle to retain it.
Alastair Clarkson will identify Adelaide’s poor disposal as a weakness and look to further exploit it by applying pressure all over the field to force turnovers.
The Crows as also ranked 18th in the league for uncontested possessions – when they do get the footy, they struggle to spread and find teammates in space. Teams have so far, been able to close down and time and space their guns like Dangerfield and Thompson have to work in.
In contrast, the Hawks are the second best side in the league in finding a teammate when they win the footy, with a disposal efficiency rating of 72.6 over the first five rounds.
The Hawks are also the fourth best side at creating space for their ball users to run and carry, averaging 221 uncontested possessions per game.
Where the two sides are even though is in their tackling pressure (Adelaide 5th, Hawthorn 7th), contested possession (Adelaide 5th, Hawthorn 6th), clearances (Adelaide 7th, Hawthorn 8th).
In the midfield
The Hawks have been dealt a blow in their midfield rotation with the loss of Cyril Rioli to a hamstring injury. The Hawthorn dynamo is an x-factor player like no other, with the ability to have as much impact without the ball as he does with it.
Luckily for the Hawks though, such is its depth through the middle that it has a number of players capable of filling the void left by Rioli.
The Hawks could regain Brad Sewell front a hamstring injury to provide more grunt to the midfield, while Shaun Burgoyne could player predominantly as a midfielder on Saturday and provide the Hawks with more clearance power.
The midfield battle holds the key on Saturday, given both sides possess damaging midfielders who can impact the scoreboard but, it is arguably the Adelaide midfielder that is under the most pressure to perform.
The Crows will be looking to players like Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Slone and Scott Thompson to not only gather a lot of the footy, but also hit the scoreboard in the absence of Taylor Walker.
One area the Crows could expose the Hawks is with pace through the middle, given both Dangerfield and Sloane are fleet of foot while Brodie Smith, Jared Petrenko and David McKay are also 80m player with the ability to run and carry and penetrate the forward 50.
The Hawks have of course lost some foot speed with Rioli, so Bradley Hill and Isaac Smith become crucial players for the Hawks.
Key players
Hawthorn –
Jarryd Roughead: All the attention falls on gun forward Lance Franklin week in, week out, so Roughead’s ability to present inside 50 becomes crucial to Hawthorn’s scoring power. Franklin can often draw two or three opponents, meaning there are free Hawthorn forwards somewhere inside 50. Roughead kicked just the one goal against North Melbourne last week after booting four against the Dockers in Round 4.
Bradley Hill: In the absence of Cyril Rioli, Hill’s importance to Hawthorn sky rockets. Despite playing in just his second season of AFL, Hill has already made a name for himself as a speedy wingman with excellent skills and the capability to expose the opposition because of that.
Luke Breust: The small forward could be asked to spend more time in the midfield this week in the absence of Rioli, but will also carry the expectation of chipping in with two or three goals. He could receive more opposition attention in Rioli’s absence, his response to that will be a point of interest.
Adelaide –
Patrick Dangerfield: Dangerfield is one of the most damaging goal kicking midfielders in the competition and his importance to the Crows is amplified in the absence of Taylor Walker. He could spend more time up forward, but when he is in the middle, the Crows will be relying on him to find space and deliver lace out to teammates.
Brent Reilly: One of the more underrated half backs in the league, Reilly is one of his team’s most consistent and reliable performers. He is good in the air and on the ground and provides the Crows with great run and carry from defence.
Josh Jenkins: The Crows recruited Jenkins from the Bombers in 2011 with an eye of him replacing Kurt Tippett, but now the big forward/ruckman will need to step up and fill the void in the absence of his forward partner, Walker. Sanderson will be asking for a big effort from the man who now wears number 4 for the Crows.