The form line – Hawthorn

Undoubtedly, Hawthorn have been building towards this clash, having not played against a side in the top eight since it defeated Sydney at the MCG in Round 7.

There have been battles though, against Carlton and West Coast mostly. The Hawks were challenged in both those games, but were able to overcome the pressure applied by both teams – on the scoreboard and in general play.

Last Sunday’s win over Brisbane was clinical, the Hawks were in control from the outset and despite a mini run on from the Lions in the third quarter, Alastair Clarkson’s side never looked like suffering an unlikely loss.

The Hawks sit a game clear of the Cats on top of the ladder, but they’re not satisfied with the season so far, but a win against Geelong would give it much confidence heading into the business end of the season.

The form line – Geelong

The Cats enjoyed one of their best and most impressive victories last Saturday night, with a 41-point win over top four rivals, Fremantle.

Geelong beat Fremantle at their own game, by suffocating the Dockers with manic pressure and consequently, making it difficult for their undermanned forward line to hit the scoreboard.

Chris Scott’s side had no such trouble, booting 11 goals for the game, which could have been more had it not been so inaccurate in front of the sticks. They kicked 19 behinds.

The win came in response to its shock loss to Brisbane, however, where it let slip a massive 52-point lead midway through the third quarter.

Historically, Geelong is hard to score against, but the Lions had no such trouble in the last quarter and a half of that game. Why? Thanks to manic pressure and an increase in intensity around the ball, particularly in the midfield.

How to beat Geelong

Collingwood and Brisbane have been the only two sides to successfully take down the Cats this season, and the Pies’ win told the competition much about the secret to beating them.

The Pies adopted a pressure-style of football the competition hasn’t seen from them arguably since 2011, that targeted Geelong’s desire to move the football from defence to attack by hand.

The Cats are the number one handballing side in the competition, having used the footy by hand more than 100 times than any other side (interestingly, Hawthorn is ranked second).

Every player in the Collingwood team that night in Round 8 laid a tackle for a team total of 63, but the pressure applied made it seem like more. The Pies also had a massive 59 inside 50s to 48 and scored from 37 of the 59 entries.

That should be the Hawthorn tactic on Saturday night, for its forwards in particular to apply manic pressure as soon as the Cats get hold of the ball.

The Hawks are ranked 11 in the league for tackles this season, an average of 61.5 per game – they will have to lay more than the season average to win on Saturday night.

Luke Breust has laid the most tackles of the forwards, with an average of 4.3 per game (second at the Club), followed by Cyril Rioli (average of 4 in five games) and Paul Puopolo comes in at five with a 3.5 average.

The onus too, will be on the midfielders and their ability to be the “second line” of defence when the pressure is applied to the ball carrier.

Of the midfielders, Brad Sewell is ranked number one at the Club with an average of 4.7, Isaac Smith is ranked fourth with 3.7 and Sam Mitchell sixth with 3.3.

Scores from turnovers will thus be key for both sides, but if Hawthorn can affect turnovers in its forward half and score, it will go a long way to them securing a victory.

The streak

Hawthorn hasn’t beaten Geelong in 10 attempts, but will that play a role in the minds of both teams during the game? Unlikely.

The streak will certainly be at the forefront of the minds of fans and media commentators, but in the heat of battle, it’s hard to see how it would affect the players.

In modern football, players have a lot to be aware of on the footy field, in an era where zone defences and player positioning is so crucial.

There is simply little time to worry about whether or not you’ve beaten you opponent the last time you met or any occasion before that.

The Hawks and Cats will go as hard as they can and do whatever they can to secure victory in the vital game, but it won’t be on the back of extending the streak or breaking it.

Delicately placed, but do the Hawks have the edge?

This game is a nightmare for tipsters, because the two teams are so evenly matched.

Both sides have the same strengths, their forward lines are dangerous and their defences rock solid.

Hawthorn may, however, have the edge. Just.

Everyone knows how dangerous the Hawthorn forward line is on paper, it is star-studded.

Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli (if he plays) and the threat of David Hale when he’s down there.

On paper they’re good, and in reality, they’re even better.

The Hawks are the number one scoring team in the competition, having kicked 140 points or more on five occasions this season – more than any other side.

The forward are all in good form, with the three talls in Franklin, Roughead and Gunston particularly dangerous.

The Hawks average 57 forward 50 entries per game (third in the league) and 18.1 goals and 12.5 behinds. Add those and you get 30.6 scores from 57 entries. That means on average, the Hawks have a better than 50 per cent chance of scoring when it enters its forward 50 (52.8 per cent chance to be exact).

On the other hand, Geelong are ranked number one for entries with an average of 58.1 but have a goals average of 16.7 and 13.2 for behinds. That is a total of 29.9 scores from 58.1 entries and a scoring per cent of 51.46. They too have a better than 50 per cent chance of scoring when they enter.

Tom Hawkins, James Podsiadly lead the forwards, but where their most dangerous is the scoring from the midfield with Steven Motlop third at the club for goals and Allen Christensen fourth and Jimmy Bartel fifth.

So then, who has the better defence?

Geelong have the two-pronged attack in Hawkins (34 goals) and Podsiadly (19), but they rely more on the ability of their midfielders to hit the scoreboard.

Four of their top six goal scorers are player who spend most of the time in the middle, if not are exclusively midfield players like Joel Selwood (ranked sixth).

The ability of those players to kick those goals though, relies on Hawks and Podsiadly to bring the ball to ground if they can’t mark it. So, the roles of Josh Gibson, Brian Lake and Ben Stratton becomes even more important.

The Hawthorn defence has improved this season for two reasons – the increased ability of players (not just Gibson) to “kill” the ball when it comes in high and long, but most importantly, the ability to back in their judgement and mark rather than spoil.

Stratton and Lake are ranked one and three at the Club respectively for marks, and it’s little wonder why the Hawks are conceding less scores than it has before.

If the trio can cut off Geelong entries by marking, then it reduces the chance of the crumbers scoring.

That is the power of the Geelong defence and has been for a number of years – the ability their defenders have to back their judgement and mark opposition kicks.

That trend has continued this year – Harry Taylor, Corey Enright and Andrew Mackie and ranked one, two and three for marks this season.

How Hawthorn can counter it

Lower the eyes.

Too often against Geelong, the Hawks bomb the ball inside 50, playing right into the hands of the Geelong defence.

Hawthorn’s biggest strength this season has been its ability to hit lead up targets and is the reason why it has kicked so many goals this season.

All of the Hawks forwards are mobile and should play to that strength on Saturday night, to get the Geelong defence moving and out of its comfort zone.

The Hawks this season are number one in the league for marks inside 50, with an average of 15 per game. If they can get that average on Saturday night, they may well just beat the Cats for the first time since 2008.

Key players

Hawthorn –

Brian Lake: The reason Lake was recruited to Hawthorn was for his ability to play on the big “gorilla” forwards, so Hawthorn will be turning to him to arguably be the difference. He has settled in well in defence and showing why he is still one of the league’s best defenders. His marking off opposition kicks is a real weapon for the Hawks.

Luke Breust: Breust played the majority of last week’s game in the midfield, but his role up forward on Saturday night is crucial. He is the pick of the forwards for tackles, so his ability to apply pressure to force turnovers when Geelong use it by hand is critical. His nous around goals too, will be important if he can bag a few.

Brad Sewell: The midfielder is as hard and tough as they come, and he could go head-t-head with Selwood. He will match him for effort and commitment, but hopefully for Hawthorn, his impact will be of more value in the context of the game. Had one of his best games for the year last week, so will be confident heading in.

Geelong –

James Podsiadly: Podsiadly mostly plays second-fiddle to Hawkins, which is why he is so important. If he gets himself into dangerous positions and manages early touches or even better an early goal, Josh Gibson or Brian Lake won’t be able to zone off his and make an impact in front of Hawkins.

Matthew Stokes: Stokes is having one his best seasons, playing the majority of his footy in the midfield but still pushing forward to impact the scoreboard. He is ranked second for disposals at the club (27.2) and has kicked nine goals this season. His skills and pace are important for the Cats.

Joel Selwood: It’s the obvious choice for Geelong because the captain always stands up when his team needs him. In Round 1, he was the reason why Geelong got back into the game and ultimately won the game. His tenacity, intensity and commitment to winning the hard ball is irreplaceable and invaluable.