The form line – Hawthorn
After an indifferent two weeks across rounds 19 and 20, the Hawks recaptured the form that got it top position on the ladder against Collingwood last Friday night.
Against one of the competition’s in-form teams, Hawthorn put the Pies to the sword with their precise ball movement and ability to quickly turn defence into attack.
Hawthorn defended well, particularly in its defence on Travis Cloke and Ben Reid, and the midfield regained form with its contested footy and tackling highlights. And the forward line was as dangerous as ever, with 11 individual goal kickers.
The Hawks are in a good position with injury just two weeks out from finals two – with only the three players out with knee injuries not to return this year and Mitch Hallahan the only other on the injury list – facing a fitness test this week.
The return of Lance Franklin and in particular, the form of Luke Hodge and Grant Birchall in their comebacks from injury means there’s only good news at Hawthorn heading into Round 22.
The form line – North Melbourne
Perhaps the unluckiest team of season 2013, the Kangaroos are out of finals contention as the ladder currently stands, but could come back into calculations depending on the outcome of the Essendon saga.
That means taking on the Roos is a dangerous prospect, with many regarding their depth of talent anyway, that of a top eight side.
Their recent form supports that, with wins over Geelong and Essendon in the past month and a big win over Richmond in Round 15 indicating they’re capable of beating or at the very least challenging the top sides.
The guns are playing well, with Daniel Wells having one of his best seasons, Drew Petrie performing up forward and Lachie Hansen playing a role down back.
Jack Ziebell, if he returns as expected will add another ominous string to the bow of the midfield along with the improvement of youngsters like Ben Cunnington.
Elite ball users
North Melbourne and Hawthorn are ranked equal first in the competition for disposal efficiency, so when watching Saturday’s game, don’t expect to see too many easy turnovers by hand or foot.
With that in mind though for both sides, coaches no doubt will put the heat on their players to ensure neither side is able to find the time and space to use their skills.
That theory is probably more important for North Melbourne, given the Hawks are one of the best teams at working the ball into space because of their ability to spread from the contest.
The Hawks are ranked third in the competition for uncontested possessions, averaging 231.1 per game, an area in which it got the better of Collingwood (ranked first) last week.
Isaac Smith, in particular is a key player for the Hawks in this area and has been particularly damaging in the last six weeks in this area, using his pace and ability to break the lines to hurt the opposition both by setting up teammates and kicking goals himself.
He has averaged over 23 disposals in his past six matches and another 21 disposal effort plus three goals against Collingwood last week made him one of Hawthorn’s most damaging players on the night.
The Etihad factor
With Saturday’s game a North Melbourne home game at Etihad Stadium, the venue, though most will say a team should win no matter where it plays, could be a factor.
The Kangaroos are a quick side whose pace and spread from the contest troubles its opposition, and that strength is amplified on the quick track at Etihad.
Statistically too, the Kangaroos play Etihad Stadium a lot better than they do the MCG – the venue of the Round 5 game in which Hawthorn won by three points.
The Roos, in their past 20 matches at Etihad Stadium have kicked an average of 17.75 goals per game and conceded just 11.95 goals to its opposition.
Compare that with their form at the MCG – 16.05 goals for and 14 goals against, the latter probably the more significant of the two.
The Hawks on the other hand are more consistent in their performances at the two venues, though are better performed at their home ground, the MCG.
At Etihad Stadium, Hawthorn, in their past 20 matches has conceded 0.2 more goals than at the MCG (12.3 goals at Etihad Stadium, 12.5 at the MCG), thought that is due to the calibre of team it plays at the MCG rather than Etihad.
They have kicked 0.55 more goals on average at the MCG, however (16.05 at Etihad, 16.5 at the MCG).
In North Melbourne’s past five matches also at Etihad Stadium, they have kicked more goals at the venue than any of the grounds available and conceded the least amount of goals at the venue.
Hawks forwards v Roos defence
Given the Roos have conceded just under 12 goals per game in its last 20 matches at Etihad Stadium, just how well they defend at the venue will face one of its biggest tests on Saturday.
Hawthorn’s forward line is the most potent in the competition, and again they showed why last Friday night with 11 individual goal kickers against Collingwood.
The Hawks have kicked more goals than any other team this season – an average of 17 per game (0.8 more than Geelong on 16.2).
The issue facing its opposition every week is, who to send your number one defender to – Lance Franklin or Jarryd Roughead.
The pair have kicked a combined 111 goals this season (Roughead 60, Franklin 51) and pose a major threat given they are both capable of kicking a big bag of goals.
Then, there Jack Gunston (33 goals) and Luke Breust (32) who are just as dangerous and then there’s Cyril Rioli who was the match-winner with four goals when the sides met in Round 5.
The Kangaroos have been dealt a massive blow with Scott Thompson – their number one defender out for the rest of the season. He kept Franklin goalless in Round 5 and also restricted him to just 12 touches.
That means, Lachie Hansen and Nathan Grima (also under an injury cloud) will take the match-ups, but without Thompson, the Roos are significantly disadvantages given their options are dried up if one of Franklin or Roughead looms large.
How they perform
Hawthorn -
Lance Franklin has kicked 44 goals in 12 matches against the Kangaroos (an average of four per game) – his third best return against any other side in the competition.
Jarryd Roughead though, hasn’t performed as well against the Roos, averaging a little over a goal a game against them, having kicked 17 goals in 14 starts.
Gun midfielder Sam Mitchell also doesn’t have the best record against the Kangaroos, averaging 26.06 disposals in 17 matches against them – his eight-best record against any side. But interestingly, he fares better in his ability to win clearances, averaging six per game – his third best record against the 18 clubs.
Brad Sewell, who worked his way back into form for the Hawks last week faces a side he loves playing against this week, averaging 23.82 disposals in 11 matches against North Melbourne – his second-best record against the 18 clubs.
North Melbourne -
Daniel Wells enjoys playing against Hawthorn, and that showed when the two teams met in Round 5, where he gathered 27 disposals and was one of his team’s best players. Wells averages 21.31 disposals against Hawthorn – his third-best record against teams other than the two expansion clubs. He also wins more clearances against Hawthorn - averaging 3.3 against the Hawks, his second-best record against any club. He has also kicked more goals against Hawthorn than any other side – 17 in 16 games.
Roos veteran Brent Harvey is one of the most respected footballers in the AFL for all he has achieved and contuse to achieve in his career, but throughout his career, he has struggled against Hawthorn. Harvey averages just 20.96 touches against the Hawks, his ninth-best record against clubs other than the two expansion teams.
Drew Petrie, the man currently second on the club’s goal kicking leader board also struggled against the Hawks, amazingly, averaging only a goal a game in 19 starts. He faces another tough game this week, up against Josh Gibson and Brian Lake.
The man currently leading the club’s goal kicking and likely All Australian this year, Lindsay Thomas too doesn’t have the best record, averaging 1.6 goals against the Hawks, though his recent haul of five in Round 5 suggests that could turn around.
The keys
Hawthorn -
Isaac Smith: Smith, along with Cyril Rioli were the two players who sparked Hawthorn against Collingwood last Friday night, but it is Smith who, in the last six weeks, has been a key player for the Hawks. His ability to run through the middle and spilt the game open is invaluable, and that will be of significance again at Etihad.
North Melbourne –
Lindsay Thomas: With Drew Petrie likely in for a tough day against Josh Gibson and Brian Lake, Thomas’ ability to kick goals will be integral to his team’s ability to win. He had just six touches in Round 5 but kicked five goals and almost won his team the game. He looms again as North Melbourne’s key.
