Hawthorn’s recent Round 4 history suggests a win on Sunday, but longer term the Hawks’ Round 4 history is more of a concern.

In recent seasons, Hawthorn has had alternating Round 4 results with victories in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020, but defeats in 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021. All Hawthorn supporters will be hoping that, on Sunday against St Kilda, the pattern is continued for another year.

Longer term, Hawthorn has only recorded one Round 4 win in a year ending in 2, and that was way back in 1952. Since that 1952 win over South Melbourne at Glenferrie, Hawthorn has lost six consecutive Round 4 games in years ending in 2, most recently a five-point loss to West Coast at Subiaco in a low-scoring affair in Round 4 2012.

Overall, Hawthorn’s Round 4 record is 42 wins, 52 defeats, two draws (1939 and 1996) and one bye (1991). Hawthorn took longer to win in Round 4 than in any other round. It was not until 1941 that the club tasted success after 15 losses and one draw.

The Hawks’ best Round 4 sequence was eight consecutive wins from 1974 to 1981. The last of those was perhaps the most memorable of the sequence, as it featured the first clash between great rival coaches, Allan Jeans at Hawthorn and Kevin Sheedy at Essendon. The Hawks won the Windy Hill encounter by 15 points.

If history is a guide, this Sunday should produce a close game as Hawthorn’s last two games on Sunday 10 April were decided by under a goal.

In 2005, on the date, Hawthorn lost by two points to Essendon at the MCG, while in 2016 the Hawks came from 19 points down at three-quarter time to snatch a thrilling three-point victory over the Western Bulldogs at Docklands, with a young James Sicily kicking the winning goal. Both these games were part of Round 3, whereas this season is running a week earlier.

Speaking of close games, last Sunday produced Hawthorn’s first loss by one-point since a defeat by Geelong in 2009. Since that one-point loss occurred, the Hawks have had three one-point wins, against Collingwood (2016), Geelong (2018) and Essendon (2021).

Sunday was Hawthorn’s 250^th game decided by six points or fewer and the Hawks Hawthorn maintain a positive record in such games, with 122 wins, 115 losses and 13 draws.

2022 is the fifth season Hawthorn has begun with wins in the opening two rounds, and then a loss in Round 3. The good news is that in three of the previous four occasions the Hawks bounced back from the Round 3 defeat with a Round 4 victory. The wins were in 1957, 1978 and 2018, with the sole Round 4 defeat in this scenario coming in 1993.

If you are having trouble remembering a game against the Saints at the MCG it is understandable, as the Hawks have not had a game against the Saints at the venue since 2014.

That game, in Round 7 2014, produced the fifth biggest winning margin in Hawthorn history – 145 points, as Hawthorn 27.13.175 defeated St Kilda 4.6.30. Four players – Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Jarryd Roughead and Ryan Schoenmakers – kicked four goals. The only negative for the Hawks was an early injury to Sam Mitchell, but young substitute Billy Hartung made the most of the opportunity to gather 26 disposals and kick a goal on debut.

Overall, Hawthorn and St Kilda have met 159 times with the Hawks winning 82 and the Saints 75, plus two draws. One young reader of Footy Flashbacks has pointed out an odd quirk that the current win-loss against St Kilda is the same as the score in the 1971 Grand Final against St Kilda – 82 to 75.

Hawthorn will be trying to avoid losing four consecutive games to St Kilda for just the third time in the last 50 years, the previous sequences of four consecutive defeats in that period being in 2003-06 and 1972-73. Hawthorn won 20 consecutive games against St Kilda from 1979 to 1989.

Last Sunday’s crowd of 66,317 was the second biggest attendance on record for a home and away game between Hawthorn and Carlton. The only bigger crowd was the 69,814 who attended in Round 6 2009, a game famous for Brendan Fevola’s late miss which saw Hawthorn win by four points.

In total, eight home and away games between Hawthorn and Carlton have attracted over 50,000 spectators of which five have been at the MCG, two at Docklands and one at Waverley.

In contrast, there has never been a 50,000-plus crowd for a home and away game against this week’s opponent St Kilda. The biggest attendance was the 49,373 who watched the drawn game at Docklands in 2010. In total there have only been six attendances over 40,000 in regular season games versus the Saints – two at the MCG, two at Docklands and two at Waverley.

70 years ago, in Round 4 1952, Hawthorn defeated South Melbourne by nine points – 11.3.69 to 8.12.60. The Hawks’ forwards were remarkably accurate after quarter-time, adding 9.0 for the remainder of the game. Tom Allsop kicked four goals, making a quirky sequence after he had kicked one goal in Round 1, two in Round 2 and three in Round 3. The best players included Len Crane (against his former club), Ted Fletcher and Neil Pearson.

Peter Hudson holds the record for the highest number of goals by a Hawthorn player against St Kilda, kicking 12 at Glenferrie in Round 15 1971 in a match which was a preview of the season’s Grand Final.

Michael Moncrieff has the best tally in Round 4, kicking nine goals at Waverley against South Melbourne in 1979.