As the ladder stands ahead of Round 14, if the side that currently ranks higher wins against their lower ranked opponent in each of the final 87 match-ups of the home and away season, Hawthorn will finish sixth.
West Coast would finish minor premiers, Carlton would “win” their second wooden spoon in four years and Brad Scott’s North Melbourne would be heartbreakingly pipped at the post for a spot in the eight by his brother Chris’ Geelong.
But, most importantly for Hawks fans, their side would be the biggest beneficiary of this hypothetical pattern of results.
No other side would climb multiple positions on the ladder but the Hawks, who would rise from ninth to sixth.
Over the course of their final ten games of the season, they play one top four side in Sydney, but then also all seven of the current bottom seven clubs on the ladder.
The 10th-placed GWS and the fifth-placed Cats, who could expect the greatest fall of three spots over the second half of the season, are the Hawks’ remaining other match-ups to close season 2018.
To this point in the season, the Hawks have played four sides below them, having won each of these encounters except against the Brisbane Lions in Round 9.
The Hawks' form against sides ahead of them on the ladder has been hit and miss, with four wins and four losses from their eight such games so far.
If every team beats the sides below them and loses to the sides above them on the current ladder, this is how the ladder will look at the end of the home and away season:
W | L | D | ||
1 | West Coast | 20 | 2 | 0 |
2 | Richmond | 19 | 3 | 0 |
3 | Sydney | 18 | 4 | 0 |
4 | Melbourne | 16 | 6 | 0 |
5 | Collingwood | 15 | 7 | 0 |
6 | Hawthorn | 15 | 7 | 0 |
7 | Port Adelaide | 15 | 7 | 0 |
8 | Geelong | 14 | 8 | 0 |
9 | North Melbourne | 14 | 8 | 0 |
10 | GWS | 10 | 11 | 1 |
11 | Fremantle | 9 | 13 | 0 |
12 | Adelaide | 8 | 14 | 0 |
13 | Essendon | 7 | 15 | 0 |
14 | Western Bulldogs | 6 | 16 | 0 |
15 | Gold Coast | 5 | 17 | 0 |
16 | St Kilda | 3 | 18 | 1 |
17 | Brisbane Lions | 2 | 20 | 0 |
18 | Carlton | 1 | 21 | 0 |