Hawthorn faces a ferocious final fortnight as the club jostles for its position in the top eight.
With two rounds to go in the home and away season, there remains 12 clubs still mathematically able to reach finals.
Such is the tension within the finals race at the moment, Hawthorn could still finish as high as second at the conclusion of the season.
At the other end of the spectrum, poor performances in these last two games could still see the Hawks drop out of the eight all together.
We take a closer look at just how delicately poised Hawthorn’s position is as we enter the final two rounds against St Kilda this week and then Sydney in Round 23.
Win both games
Let’s start with the best-case scenario!
Hawthorn defeats the Saints this Saturday night for the eighth time in their last nine encounters before heading to Sydney and overcoming the Swans in their home town for the fourth consecutive time.
Meanwhile, West Coast falter, losing their match-up with Melbourne at home this Sunday and then falling to Brisbane as they have to travel across the country in Round 23.
The Giants, too, don’t finish their year as they may have hoped, managing just one win from their clashes with Melbourne and Sydney.
Unlikely but not ridiculous, this series of results would see the Hawks finish in second place at the close of the home and away season.
A more probable outcome, if the Hawks were to go “two from two” (and other games went as the current ladder might suggest - losing to above teams and beating those below), would see the Hawks finish in fourth place.
Win one, lose one
First things first: Hawthorn needs to win just one more game this season to guarantee themselves a place in September.
At worst (and incredibly unlikely, verging on impossible), one win from their final two games could see them drop as low as eighth position.
But this scenario could also see the Hawks hold onto a fourth spot given their superior percentages to most of the other suitors vying for that final place in the top four.
But, most likely, considering that all favourites deliver wins and the Hawks’ last win of the home and away season comes against the Saints, the brown and gold would likely hold onto fifth position.
Lose both games
In what would require a catastrophically disastrous turn of events, the Hawks could still finish as low as 11th come the end of the season.
Although, this is especially unlikely considering the Hawks’ percentage is currently the fourth-strongest in the league.
So, back into a realm with a bit more reality, two losses in the final two games of the year should still the brown and gold hold onto a finals spot.
The Hawks’ strong percentage means that if they were to finish with 13 wins for the season, they should still scrape in.
Geelong, Port Adelaide and Melbourne are the sides that Hawks fans might want to keep an eye on in the case of this undesirable end to Hawthorn's home and away fixture.
Read: Who's in the mix for Round 22?
*All projected match results have considered a standard winning margin of 20 points
