All the historical precedents are positive for Hawthorn’s cut-throat semi final against the Bulldogs.
Hawthorn has played four previous finals against the Bulldogs and won them all; the Hawks have also appeared in four previous finals on September 16th and won them all; and perhaps most significantly of all, Hawthorn has never gone out of a finals series in ‘straight sets’.
***********
Hawthorn's four previous finals against the Bulldogs have produced wins, by 43 points in the 1961 grand final; by 93 points in the 1985 qualifying final; by 10 points in the 1985 preliminary final; and by 51 points in a 2008 qualifying final. Amazingly, that 2008 win was Hawthorn’s first in a Final at the MCG since the 1989 Grand Final.
Hawthorn’s previous four finals on September 16th saw victories against North Melbourne (1978), Essendon (1984 and 1989) and Sydney (2011).
***********
This Friday night Hawthorn will be endeavouring to keep intact a proud record of never having gone out of a final series in ‘straight sets’.
The only time Hawthorn has lost consecutive finals in the same season was 1977, but in that case it was after winning the qualifying final. On the six occasions when the Hawks got a second chance after a first-up loss, they have won every time. Two of the first-up defeats were in second semi finals (1963 and 1986), with the Hawks then bouncing back to win preliminary final. Four were qualifying final defeats (1974, 1982, 2011 and 2015) and every time Hawthorn bounced back with big wins in the semi finals.
In 1974, after losing to North Melbourne the previous week, Hawthorn thrashed Collingwood by 50 points in the first semi final – 21.12.138 to 13.10.88, setting up the win by outscoring the Magpies by 33 points in the opening term. Leigh Matthews was the star having 21 kicks and kicking seven goals. In 1982, after a qualifying final loss to Carlton, Hawthorn thrashed North Melbourne by 52 points – 24.22.166 to 18.6.114. Dermott Brereton made a memorable debut with five goals, but the best player was the same as eight years earlier, with Leigh Matthews having an incredible 37 disposals (29 kicks and 8 handballs) and kicking four goals.
In 2011, Hawthorn beat Sydney by 36 points with Lance Franklin a surprise participant after getting injured the previous week against Geelong. His four goals were supplemented by three from first-year player Paul Puopolo. Last season, Hawthorn thrashed Adelaide by 74 points with Luke Breust kicking six goals and Sam Mitchell gathering 33 disposals.
***********
Ryan Burton has become the least experienced player to represent Hawthorn in a final since Dermott Brereton made his debut in the 1982 first semi final. Burton was playing just his fourth AFL game last Friday night, one fewer than the previous lowest number in the past 35 years which was when Nathan Lonie played a final in just his fifth game in 2001.
Last week Jack Fitzpatrick played a final in just his second Hawthorn game, placing him, if only counting Hawthorn games, in equal third on the least experienced when playing a Final, with Shane Murphy. Murphy’s second game was the 1975 second semi final and he played in that game alongside the man who shares the record with Brereton of debuting in a final – Michael Cooke. Cooke has the remarkable record of a two game Hawthorn career made up of a second semi and grand final.
***********
Of the five previous teams before the current Hawthorn team to have won three premierships in a row, four played in the finals the following season and all four of them went onto make the grand final. Three of those teams (Carlton 1909, Melbourne 1958 and Brisbane Lions 2004) reached the grand final without losing an earlier Final. They all lost the grand final.
In contrast, Collingwood lost an earlier final in 1930 before going onto become the only team in history to secure four Flags in a row. Could this history be repeated by Hawthorn in 2016?
***********
The attendance of 87,533 last Friday night was the largest to attend a Hawthorn final (excluding grand finals) since the 1974 preliminary final against North Melbourne, which was attended by 88,262. It is the fifth biggest such crowd overall in Hawks history, with the biggest being the 99,822 who attended the 1971 second semi against St Kilda.
**********
The two point loss to Geelong was Hawthorn’s equal smallest losing margin in a final, joining the loss to Collingwood in the 1977 second semi. In total, Hawthorn has lost five finals by six points or fewer (most recently prior to last week in the 2011 preliminary final), but has won ten finals in that points range, including three by two points (in 1971, 1987 and 1991).
***********
Hawthorn has won eight consecutive games against the Bulldogs, giving the Hawks a narrow lead in the head-to-head history between the two clubs, 81-75, with two draws. The Bulldogs last defeated Hawthorn in Round 3 2010. The two clubs have only met ten times at the MCG, with Hawthorn winning three finals and having a 4-3 record in seven home games there. The two clubs have not met at the MCG since 2011.
***********
Three Hawthorn players have kicked eight goals in finals – Michael Moncrieff in 1978, Dermott Brereton in 1985 and Lance Franklin in 2008. Jason Dunstall holds the record against the Western Bulldogs kicking 14 goals in Round 19 1996.