History indicates that this Saturday’s Preliminary Final against Port Adelaide will be close.
Hawthorn’s last three Preliminary Finals have all been decided by less than a goal, while the Hawks won their only previous final against Port Adelaide by 3 points.
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Of Hawthorn’s 13 previous Preliminary Finals, eight have been decided by a margin smaller than two goals.
The Hawks recorded wins by 9 (1963), 10 (1985), 2 (1987), 5 (2012) and 5 again (2013), and suffered defeats by 5 (1974), 9 (2001) and 3 (2011). Oddly, if a Hawthorn Preliminary Final is not close, it is usually very one-sided, with wins by 56 (1986) and 54 (2008), offset by losses by 68 (1957) and 67 (1977). The only margin between the two extremes was the 31 point defeat by Carlton in 1982.
Hawthorn’s overall record in Preliminary Finals is seven wins and six defeats. However, on the 8 previous occasions when, like this year, the Hawks were the higher placed team heading into the game, the club has won 7 and lost only once (in 1977). It is also worth noting that eight of the games were under the Final Four/Fives systems when there was one Preliminary Final per season, and 5 have been since the Final Eight meant two Preliminary Finals per season.
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Hawthorn’s one previous Final against Port Adelaide was a 2001 Semi Final at Football Park. Few gave the Hawks a chance but, in a memorable final quarter, the Hawks fought back from 17 points down to win by 3 points – 10.12.72 to 10.9.69.
It was a tight low-scoring encounter which Port led by 2 goals at quarter time, but Hawthorn rallied to lead by one point at the long interval. However, the Power surged in the third quarter to lead by 17 points at the final change. In a thrilling final term, John Barker and Daniel Harford kicked crucial late goals, while around-the-ground Mark Graham starred, helping to both set-up and save the win.
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Jack Gunston’s three goals in the Qualifying Final took his tally in Finals to 20, which has taken him into the top 10 goalkickers for Hawthorn in Finals. Jarryd Roughead is also in the top ten with 24 goals.
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Hawthorn has played three previous Preliminary Finals on 20 September, all of which resulted in wins. The Hawks defeated Fitzroy by 56 points at Waverley in 1986, St Kilda by 54 points at the MCG in 2008, and Geelong last season. In all three cases, Hawthorn went on to win the Premiership.
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Overall, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide have met 28 times with the Hawks winning 12 and losing 16. Prior to the loss at the Adelaide Oval in May, Hawthorn was on its best ever winning streak against the Power having won the previous 5 encounters. At the MCG, the two clubs have clashed 7 times with the Hawks winning 3 and the Power 4. However, Hawthorn has won the last two matches at the venue, including a 165 point triumph in 2011.
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Three Hawthorn players have kicked eight goals in a final – Michael Moncrieff in 1978, Dermott Brereton in 1985 and Lance Franklin in 2008. The most in a Preliminary Final is five recorded by Jason Dunstall (v Fitzroy 1986), Gary Buckenara (v Melbourne 1987) and Mark Williams (v St Kilda 2008). Franklin’s eight goals in Round 21 2011 is the highest tally by a Hawthorn player against Port Adelaide. The next best is six recorded by Aaron Lord in the first game between the two clubs in 1997, by Trent Croad (2000), Franklin (2008) and Cyril Rioli (2011).
