The form

Hawthorn
A solid win in Tasmania over the Bulldogs has the Hawks well-placed for Saturday’s clash against the Demons at the MCG.

While Jack Gunston will miss through injury, the Hawks have regained star midfielders Sam Mitchell and Isaac Smith who will add to the already strong arsenal in the middle.

The form of Jordan Lewis and the emergence of Liam Shiels as a genuine damaging ball-winner has seen the Hawks improve and become a more daunting task than they were previously.

Not letting there be a halt in momentum following that big win over Sydney two weeks ago will again be on Alastair Clarkson’s radar ahead of a tough three-week block to end the season.

Melbourne
Though the Demons have come a long way under new coach Paul Roos, a disappointing loss to Brisbane last weekend has put a dent in their confidence.

Inaccurate goal kicking and poor ball use were costly, so they’ll be keen to come out and atone for that against the Hawks.

Other than the loss to Brisbane, Melbourne’s form has been good in the last month when they almost pulled off one of the upsets of the year over Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval.

Nathan Jones has been their star midfielder this year, as has Dom Tyson who has re-captured his early season form. Chris Dawes has been a target to kick to up forward.

Recent history

It comes as no surprise the Hawks have an outstanding recent record against the Demons having won the last five encounters between the two teams by an average of 56.2 points.

The Demons have had trouble scoring against the Hawks in their past two meetings, failing to kick 50 points in both. In Round 10 last year the Demons managed just 6.12 (48), while in Round 2 2012 kicked 6.13 (49).

Defensive Demons

A master tactician, Melbourne Coach Paul Roos has transformed the Demons into one of the hardest teams to score against this season.

Fascinatingly, despite the Demons sitting 17^th on the AFL ladder they have had 100 points kicked against them by their opposition in just three of their 18 matches this year.

After averaging 122 points against last year – the second heaviest points conceded record in the AFL – the Demons have become a defensive fortress, conceding just 83 points per game on average this season.

Interestingly, Melbourne has conceded just 54 more points to their opposition than Hawthorn this season – the Demons have conceded 1499 and the Hawks 1444.
 

How have they done it?

Winning football matches comes down to getting the game played on your terms and how teams achieve that is by winning the footy and controlling it.

The Demons have improved in both those areas this year.

Melbourne were ranked 18^th in the league for disposals per game (318.6) but in 2014 average 31.7 more disposals this season to be ranked 12^th overall (350.3 per game).

But winning the ball is one thing and controlling it is another and that’s where Melbourne’s big improvement lies.

The Demons have drastically improved their ball use, moving from 13^th in the competition last year with an average of 70.9 per cent to fourth in 2014 by running at 73.3 per cent by hand and foot.

Those improvements in their ability to win the footy and control it has resulted in less scores against because Melbourne are keeping the ball out of the hands of their opposition and they’re doing it with short, precise passes (marks are also up from 14^th last year to 7^th this year).

The addition of midfielder Dom Tyson (23.4 disposal average) and experienced campaigner Bernie Vince (23.3) has particularly helped in this area, adding to the strength and impact of co-captain Nathan Jones (Melbourne leading disposal winner with 27.6 average).

That means their uncontested possessions and thus their work rate has also improved from a 191.7 average last year to 216.6 in 2014 (ranked 12^th in the league).

Hawthorn can expect to be denied the footy by Melbourne on Saturday and to avoid possible defeat, will need to pressure the ball carrier to force long kicks to contests, rather than allowing the Demons to play their short-kicking style.

How the Hawks can break through

There are four key areas in which the Hawks have a decisive edge over the Demons and that’s in contested footy, clearances, inside 50s and scores.

The Demons are inexperienced in the midfield outside Jones, Vince and Daniel Cross, with one of their best midfielders of the year, Dom Tyson only in his third year of senior footy.

The Hawks, on the other hand are not, with Lewis, Hodge, Mitchell and Shaun Burgoyne rolling through a deep and hardened midfield with finals experience.

Alastair Clarkson’s team is ranked second in the league for contested possessions (146.5 average), an area in which they comprehensively beat the Bulldogs at their own strength last week.

The Hawks are also the most damaging team at the clearances, ranked first in the league with an average of 41.5 per game, while the Demons are ranked last with just 33.4.

Lewis is the main man for the Hawks in the midfield, leading both stats at the Hawks, followed closely by his captain, Hodge, Burgoyne and Mitchell.

For Melbourne, the load is left mostly to Jones, who is ranked number one for both areas.

With Hawthorn’s dominance in close, it’s no shock they average a huge number of inside 50s per game (57.3, ranked number one in the competition) and that’s where the biggest issue lies for Melbourne.

While the Demons have improved in their ability to win the footy and control it, any time there is a stoppage they’ll be exposed by the bigger bodies of the Hawks.

Can they hold the Hawthorn forwards?

The Hawks are still the number one scoring team in the competition, averaging 113 points per game with Melbourne’s ability to keep their defensive fortress going to truly be tested.

Without skipper Jack Grimes in defence, the Demons will look to James Frawley and Lynden Dunn for leadership as well as a big performance from improved defender Tom McDonald.

Luckily for the Demons they won’t have to contend with 44-goal forward Jack Gunston who is out injured but Jarryd Roughead (50 goals) and Luke Breust (46) will still be causing headaches.

Then there are the cameos from David Hale, Paul Puopolo and Isaac Smith to contend with.