The form – Hawthorn
The Hawks couldn’t be in any better shape (aside from some injuries) heading into the opening round of the season, having won three of three practice matches by an average of 99 points.
The players have shown a great attitude over the pre-season after an emphasis on ensuring there is no repeat of the 2009 season that followed the 2008 premiership.
The form – Brisbane
With a new coach and a new game plan, the Lions won one of three practice matches but their loss to the Hawks in their first practice game should be ignored – they were missing several of their best 22.
The Lions beat Gold Coast by 47 points but fell to the Swans, one of the premiership fancies by 27 points but in no way were disgraced.
Their gun midfielders like Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden and Daniel Rich are in good form and with a renewed hunger for defensive pressure, are ready for Round 1.
Recent history
Hawthorn has been one of the premier teams in the competition over the last three or four years so it comes as little surprise that the recent history between the two sides is heavily in the Hawks' favour.
In Round 14 last year, the only meeting between Hawthorn and Brisbane for the year, saw the Hawks record a convincing 58-point winners. It was Hawthorn’s fourth win in a row against the Lions who haven’t beaten the Hawks since Round 12, 2009.
The average winning margin for Hawthorn over Brisbane in the last four encounters is 60 points.
Injury, suspension strikes
The Hawks will have a different look to its 2013 premiership-winning team, with seven premiership players missing from the Round 1 line-up.
Brad Sewell and Ben Stratton are injured, both with hamstring strains, while Brian Lake and Cyril Rioli are serving suspensions handed down from the Grand Final.
Brent Guerra and Max Bailey won’t be there, both retired after the premiership and Lance Franklin has left for Sydney.
Hawthorn’s forward line v Brisbane’s defence
By far the most dangerous forward line in the competition last season, Hawthorn’s forward line shapes again as a strength for the reigning premiers but this year, it will be led by Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston.
While Roughead won the Coleman Medal last season, he will now get the opposition’s best defender, while Gunston, who previously flew under the radar thanks to the presence of Lance Franklin won’t be afforded the same luxury this season.
Luke Breust has shown so far in the pre-season he is still smart around goals and as dangerous as ever, as is David Hale who booted three goals in the NAB Challenge victory over the Lions.
Paul Puopolo will float through as a forward pocket/half forward as will midfielders like Jordan Lewis.
Do the Lions have the cattle to stop them? That will probably depend on the support received by their midfield teammates who will be required to pressure the ball coming in and getting back to fill the holes in front of Roughead and Gunston.
Joel Patful and Daniel Merrett will line up on the Hawks duo and can hold their own in one-on-one situations, but it is the clean ball coming in on the lead that is the worry.
The Achilles heal
Hawthorn’s defence has been hit by injury and suspension but luckily, they’re facing a Brisbane team whose Achilles heal is its forward line.
Last year the Lions averaged 87 points per game – ranked thirteenth in the competition. Sides who finished lower on the ladder - West Coast and Western Bulldogs kicked more points across the 22 games.
Jonathan Brown is still an imposing figure inside 50 but he doesn’t get much support from his teammates. Ash McGrath, one of their best and most dangerous forwards won’t play because of injury, so new coach Justin Leppitsch will turn to the resting ruckman, either Trent West or Matthew Leuenberger to help.
The recruitment of Luke McGuane from Richmond will help but he’s not exactly the big brute forward they’re crying out for to take the pressure off Brown.
Hawthorn’s defence is tight and will be led by Josh Gibson and Grant Birchall, while defensive coach Luke Beveridge will have the replacements for Stratton, Lake and Schoenmakers well prepared and ready to step up.
The midfield
Brisbane’s strength is its midfield, with players like Tom Rockliff, Daniel Rich, Dayne Zorko, Jack Redden and Matthew Leuenberger giving them first use.
But Hawthorn’s is just as good. With Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge, Isaac Smith plus a number of players like Paul Puopolo and Luke Breust who can also float through the middle, they bat deep.
It means that Brisbane will be dependant more than Hawthorn on winning the midfield battle because their forward line isn’t as potent as the Hawks’.
Brisbane need repeat entries to mount pressure on Hawthorn’s defence, while the Hawks are dangerous most times they go forward.
Hawthorn’s forwards are dangerous and scored the most points of any team in the league last year, and given the opportunity will do so again on Saturday.
