The form
Hawthorn
The Hawks have licked their wounds this week after being defeated by Fremantle last Sunday in a performance that was at times unHawthorn-like.
Hawthorn players succumbed to Fremantle’s manic pressure and were forced into mistakes by hand and foot, something we’re not used to seeing from Alastair Clarkson’s team.
That experience will bode well for the Hawks on Saturday night though as they face another top four team and big pressure team in Geelong.
Geelong
The Cats proved again they are masters at winning close games, beating Carlton by just six points at Etihad Stadium last week and before that, Fremantle by two points.
But Geelong haven’t been at their best and were exposed by their opposition in both matches and even gave them the opportunity to pinch victory.
The form of Tom Hawkins is of a little bit of a concern after failing to kick a goal against the Blues and managing just one against Freo, as rumours of his back injury flaring up again begin to swirl.
The history between these two sides is well documented, with the Hawks having beaten the Cats just once since the 2008 Grand Final.
The Cats triumphed in the meeting between the two sides earlier this year, on Easter Monday in Round 5 by 19 points.
The Hawkins factor
He might be struggling for form in the last two weeks with some speculating his back injury has flared up again but the Hawks won’t be getting caught up in the innuendo - they know too well his ability to win games off his own boot.
Hawkins has been a thorn in Hawthorn’s side in the past, with the big Cat proving too big and strong for the likes of Ryan Schoenmakers, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gibson.
In Round 5, Hawkins booted three last quarter goals to lead his side to victory over the Hawks as he monstered Cheney on his way to finishing with five goals from 16 disposals and 10 marks.
Of course, he also kicked the match-winner on the fateful night in 2012.
Hawkins has booted 22 goals in 11 games against the Hawks but 17 of those 22 have come in the last six meetings.
Tom Hawks outmuscles Kyle Cheney in the Round 5 meeting between the Hawks and the Cats.
Lake v Hawkins
Most importantly for Hawthorn though, they might have finally found the big Cat’s kryptonite in the form of North Smith medallist, Brian Lake.
Hawkins managed just one goal in last year’s Preliminary Final and failed to kick a goal in the Round 15 meeting between the sides earlier that year - the first time Lake stood Hawkins when wearing brown and gold (he missed Easter Monday 2013 with injury).
Lake’s inclusion on Saturday night is crucial for the Hawks in securing a vital victory as the backline of Hawthorn begins to settle following an injury-ravaged year.
The Hawks full back will also receive help from Josh Gibson, arguably one of the best readers of play in the league and Ben Stratton who is getting back to his best.
In the midfield
Like most games, this one will be won and lost in the midfield and the stats suggest the Hawks might head into this one with some confidence.
The Hawks are one of the best clearance-winning teams in the competition, ranked first in the league for overall clearances (41.2 average) and second for centre clearances (13.1 average) but the Cats are ranked poorly at 18th (32.9 average) and 17th (10.8) respectively.
No wonder the Hawks have brought back Brad Sewell who is a clearance specialist to ram home that advantage and play alongside fellow clearance guns Jordan Lewis (5.9 average), Will Langford (4.6), Sam Mitchell (4.4), Luke Hodge (3.9) and Liam Shiels (3.7).
The Hawks also outrank the Cats for contested footy, ranked fifth in the league to Geelong’s 10th.
Like Fremantle though, Geelong’s strength is in their pressure around the footy, which sees them ranked second in the competition for tackles per game (72.4).
That means Sunday’s game against Freo was a timely dress rehearsal for the Hawks who will need to handle Geelong’s pressure better than they did Fremantle’s on Saturday night if they’re to get the ball into the hands of their dangerous forwards.
For the Cats of course it’s cpatain Joel Selwood who leads the way in tackles with 5.8 per game, followed by tagger Cameron Guthrie (5.5), Jimmy Bartel (4.5) and James Kelly (4.2).
The Hawks are actually ranked 18th in the league for tackles with an average of 61.2 per game but they’ll need to be better than that on Saturday night to stop easy ball going into Geelong’s forward 50.
What that means
Of course Hawthorn’s ability to stop Hawkins comes down to its ability to win the midfield battle and stop easy ball coming in to Hawkins either on the lead or in one-on-one contests.
The Cats lead the league in marks taken inside their forward 50 (13.9 per game average) and unsurprisingly Hawkins is ranked second in the competition in that area (3.8 average).
But the Hawks have a strength of their own in that area and if they get on top in the midfield, expect the Geelong defence to be under the pump for most of the night.
While the Hawks are ranked fourth for marks inside 50 (12.2 average), they have three players ranked inside the top 20 in the league for marks taken inside the scoring zone, which spells danger for the Cats.
The three-pronged attack at Hawthorn are all just as dangerous as each other and are marking targets inside 50.
Jarryd Roughead leads the way with 2.7 marks inside 50 on average, while Jack Gunston is next at 2.2 and Luke Breust at 1.7.
The Hawks have a better spread of goal kickers with Roughead (55 goals), Breust (51) and Gunston (45) compared to Geelong with Hawkins (52 goals) then a big gap to Jimmy Bartel (22), Mitch Duncan (21) and Joel Selwood (18).
