The form

Hawthorn
A top two finish is now in sight at Hawthorn after the crucial win over the Swans last Saturday night, which means Alastair Clarkson’s team won’t be in the mood to drop any games they’re expected to win.

Now three games back from injury, Sam Mitchell’s output will grow, while Jordan Lewis and Luke Hodge continue to be strong pillars in the midfield.

The forward line of Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Jarryd Roughead is still firing, while Paul Puopolo his some good ball-winning form last week and is an important role-player.

Western Bulldogs
After struggling earlier in the season, the Bulldogs have now hit some strong form where they have challenged the league’s top sides.

Their most recent game, against Essendon in Round 18 saw them push the in-form Bombers to the brink and were probably in the end unlucky to lose.

An injury to midfield stopper Mitch Wallis is a blow but the form of Tom Liberatore in the midfield has been important, as has the goal-kicking form of young gun Jake Stringer.
 

Recent history

Given the success Hawthorn has enjoyed in recent years, it comes as no surprise the Hawks have won their last five games against the Bulldogs by an average of 33.8 points.

The Hawks beat the Dogs by 19 points in Round 17 last year but before that recorded a 72-point win in Round 16, 2012.

The closest winning margin was three points way back in Round 14, 2010.
 

A change in the Bulldogs

For a number of years the knock on the Bulldogs has been their inability to make use of their dominance in the midfield but that has changed in the last five weeks.

While Liberatore, Ryan Griffen and Matthew Boyd have fired in the midfield and at times dominated their opposition, finally that hard work has been finished by a dangerous forward mix.

Led by Stewart Crameri who has kicked 27 goals this year, the Bulldogs have uncovered some dangerous talent that is providing headaches for opposition coaches.

Since returning to the team in Round 15, young gun Jake Stringer has kicked 11 goals in his last four matches including a bag of five against the Bombers in Round 18 and four against the Demons in Round 15.

At 192cm, Stringer plays like a high half forward and at times even like a goal sneak such is his athleticism on the ground but he can be just as damaging on the lead.

He has added another dimension to his side’s forward line and taken much of the attention off Crameri who, at the moment is the number one target.

Couple that duo with Luke Dahlhaus who is having another brilliant season both in the midfield and up forward and you’ve got a dangerous forward line capable of kicking goals.
 

What results has this produced?

Combine a gun midfield whose strength is winning clearances (ranked fourth in the AFL) and contested possessions (ranked fifth) with goal-kicking ability and you get a dangerous team.

That describes the Bulldogs of the last six weeks who have beaten Collingwood and Gold Coast, pushed top four team Geelong to within seven points at Simonds Stadium and been unlucky not to beat Essendon if it weren’t for an injury to Mitch Wallis who has tagged Dyson Heppell out of the game.
 

Clearances the key

Hawthorn experienced first-hand the importance of winning the clearances last Saturday night, when they were first dominated in the clearances and on the scoreboard by Sydney before turning the tables in both areas.

Sunday’s game will see two of the competition’s best clearance teams go at it and whoever wins the battle will get the upper hand in a larger game sense.

The Hawks are the benchmark in the clearances, ranked number one in the league with an average of 41.2 per game, while the Dogs come in at number four at 40.7 per game.

Interestingly though, the Hawks have the upper had in centre clearances where they’re ranked third (13.4 per game) and the Dogs 10^th (12.4).

For Hawthorn, it’s Jordan Lewis who is the man to watch.

Lewis has been ranked Hawthorn’s number one clearances player all season and continued his great form against the Swans last Saturday night.

He had 12 touches and a team-high four clearances in the last quarter to steer the Hawks to victory.

His season average is 5.5 per game, followed by Captain Luke Hodge (4.1) and Shaun Burgoyne (3.6).

Since returning from injury, Sam Mitchell has also been prominent, averaging 4.3 clearances in his nine games this year.

For the Dogs, Liberatore leads the way and is in fact the number two clearance player in the competition.

Tough in the clinches, ‘Libba’ averages 7.2 clearances per game, with his in and under work the biggest strength of his game.

Even when he is being closely watched by an opposition midfielder, most of the disposals picked up by the young Bulldog comes from clearances. 

Behind him is skipper Boyd (5.4), ruckman Will Minson (4.4) and Griffen (4.1).
 

Hawk strength Dogs biggest concern

The biggest question on the Bulldogs is their ability to stop Hawthorn’s gun forward line, an area in which the Hawks will probably be just too strong.

Hawthorn average more forward 50 entries than any other team this season with an average of 57.6 per game, so it’s little wonder why the likes of Breust, Roughead and Gunston have fired.

The trio has kicked 130 goals between them this year to clearly be the most dangerous group in the league.

The Bulldogs are light on for key defenders, with veteran Dale Morris the most experienced but still undersized if given the role on Roughead.

Morris might be more suited to stand Gunston and leave the Roughead match-up for the Hawthorn big man’s cousin, Jordan.

Liam Picken will no doubt be given the lock down role on Breust.

Considering the Dogs have conceded 95 points per game on average and the Hawks average 116 points for, that spells a big danger for coach, Brendan McCartney and a clear advantage for Hawthorn on Sunday.