The form – Hawthorn

After two successive losses in Round 8 and 10, the Hawks are on a two-game winning streak, with their win over West Coast the more impressive of the two.

While they lost the clearances to the Eagles, Hawthorn’s pressure and domination around the ground showed that even without a number of key players, their depth can more than cover for the missing stars.

Jarryd Roughead is back in form with a scintillating eight-goal performance last week, while Jordan Lewis and Luke Hodge head into Friday night feeling confident after good performances against the Eagles.

Cyril Rioli is back and at his exciting best, while Matt Spangher and Kyle Cheney seem more than capable of holding down the fort in defence.
 

The form – Carlton

Friday night’s game will tell us whether Carlton’s much-improved performance against Geelong is now the norm after a disappointing stretch for the Blues.

Good in patches against the Lions in Round 11, although ultimately succumbing to the league’s bottom side, the Blues were a shadow of that team last Friday night against the Cats.

Slick ball use through the middle with Chris Yarran, Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy and Kade Simpson, the Blues looked back to their dangerous offensive best.

That was combined with a hardened edge on the defensive side, with their tackling pressure the best it has been all year.
 

Recent history

The Blues put in one of their best performances of 2013 against the Hawks in their last meeting, although that wasn’t enough to beat the eventual premiers. Hawthorn won that game by 15 points, which carried on their great run against the Blues, who haven’t beaten the Hawks since 2005.

Hawthorn’s average winning margin in the last five meetings between the sides is 26 points, although they have twice beaten them by 50 points (in 2012 and 2010) in that time.

The closest encounter was a four-point Hawthorn win at the MCG in 2009, with the other two results the 15-point win last year and a 12-point victory in 2011.
 

Carlton’s struggles

In the last five or six years, Carlton’s biggest strength has been its attacking power and the ability of its creative midfielders to run and carry through the midfield. But in the last year or two, the Blues have lost that spark, through a combination of poor form and a more defensive mindset.

This year, it has been the same story for Carlton but what has been more troubling is its lack of potency up forward.

They lost Eddie Betts to the Crows via Free Agency, who contributed 27 goals last year, 48 the year before and 50 in 2011 – and they’ve struggled to find a replacement for him this year.

Jarrad Waite’s form has been down – kicking just 10 goals this year – and Lachie Henderson hasn’t quite come on as the powerful lead-up target they’d hoped.

He is their equal-leading goal kicker (along with Troy Menzel) with 14 for the year but six of those have come in the last two weeks – three against Brisbane and three against Geelong.  

The issue for Carlton is their attacking weapons haven’t been as dynamic this year as they have been in the past, and when they have been, they haven’t had anyone to kick the goals because their forwards are out of form.

The case of Jarrad Waite

Carlton’s best and goal kicker since the departure of Brendan Fevola and arguably their most important player, Waite has been a barometer for the Blues again this season.

He has battled injury and form to date – the tale of his career – with his output, whether good or bad, in direct correlation to whether the side has won or lost.

Waite is averaging 12.7 disposals, 5.7 marks (1.9 contested) but just 1.2 goals per game this season in eight games.

When the Blues win, he plays above those averages with of 18 touches, 8.3 marks (2.3 contested) and 2.0 goals.

But when they lose, it’s when he’s struggling up forward. He averages just 7.2 disposals, 3.1 marks (1.5 contested) and 0.4 goals per game.

He was ineffective against the Cats last Friday night, where he was ultimately subbed out at three-quarter time with 11 disposals, five marks and no goals.

The plot thickens on Friday night against the Hawks, where he’ll have an undermanned but capable Hawthorn defence to contend with.
 

How they turned it around last week

As we’ve said, the Blue play their best footy when they’re running through the middle and getting the footy into the hans of players who cover the ground with speed and who use it really well.

That’s exactly what they did against the Cats last Friday night, as they re-captured that excitement.

Their top five possession-getters were outside runners – Bryce Gibbs, Andrew Walker, Kade Simpson, Sam Docherty and Marc Murphy – which is an indication of their willingness to take the game on more through the middle and particularly off half-back.

Dale Thomas (18 disposals) and Chris Yarran (17, including six running bounces) also played their best games for the year and set up play going forward.

But it was Gibbs who inflicted most of the damage both on the offensive end and the defence.  He tagged Joel Selwood but was also able to work him going the other way, with his damaging run and ability to his the scoreboard.

Gibbs was best on ground for the Blues with 29 disposals and four goals.
 

Facing an in-form Hawthorn midfield

Carlton will need to generate their run on Friday night against a Hawthorn midfield that was excellent against the Eagles in Tasmania.

The Hawk midfield is one brimming with high-class talent – starting with Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis, Shaun Burgoyne and Brad Sewell – and littered with young but experienced talent – Isaac Smith, Bradley Hill and Liam Shiels.

Five of those players were in the top nine possession-getters for the Hawks against the Eagles, with Lewis (30 disposals, six clearances), Hodge (28 and six), Shiels (24 and five) and Smith (24 and four) inflicting the most damage as the top-four Hawks on the ground.

Those Hawks are as talented as they are consistent and are proud men by nature who want to perform at their best every time they step out onto the field so it’s little wonder why the Hawthorn midfield is rated as one of if not the best in the competition, even without Sam Mitchell.

The Hawks are one of the best as winning the ball on the spread, ranked second in the competition for uncontested possessions (Carlton 16^th) and they combine that with prolific and smart ball-winners at stoppages – ranked first for clearances (Carlton fourth).
 

Hawk potency v leaky Blues

Hawthorn is still the number one scoring team in the competition, averaging 116.8 points per game and the Blues will have the work cut out for them to stop all of Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Cyril Rioli.

Of course, Roughead is heading into the game with his confidence sky high after a bag of eight goals against the Eagles and unfortunately for the Blues, he loves playing against them. Roughead averages 3.5 goals in eight matches versus Carlton.

The other issue is that the Blues defence has leaked too many goals this year and in fact has conceded the fourth-most points of any team in the competition, with an average of 97.3 points per game conceded to their opposition.

Michael Jamison, Sam Rowe and Zach Tuohy in particular will have their work cut out for them on Friday night.