The form line – Hawthorn

The Hawks are well placed heading into Friday night’s clash, having won three of its past four matches and sits one game clear on top of the AFL ladder.

Although a home final is already secure, a win on Friday night would secure Hawthorn the minor premiership for the second year running and undoubtedly provide the players with further confidence heading into finals.

Strongly challenged against the Kangaroos last week at Etihad Stadium, where it was forced to regroup at half time and go to plan B will hold it in good stead for Friday night’s battle against another top four side.

The stars are in good form and the team is relatively settled despite a couple of injury concerns out of last week’s game.

The form line – Sydney

After being touted as the team to beat only a month ago, the Swans have been beaten in two of their past three games against sides in the top eight – Collingwood and Geelong.
 

In both those matches, the Swans were outworked both in close through contested footy and on the outside through uncontested possessions. They were also beaten in tackles.

There also injury concerns, with Dan Hannebery likely to miss and Rhyce Shaw out for the rest of the season with a ruptured ACL. Adam Goodes and Sam Reid are also not in the selection frame.

There is much on the line for Sydney on Friday night, and their form of late suggests it might not be any match for a Hawthorn side ready for a big finals campaign.

The dilemma

With the current ladder positions and matches left this season, it looks increasingly likely that Hawthorn and Sydney will play off in a Qualifying Final in week one of September.

If Hawthorn win, it will certainly be a Hawthorn Sydney Qualifying Final and even if the Swans win, there is still the possibility they will meet again next week, depending on whether or not Fremantle (currently in third) defeats St Kilda on Saturday.

If the two teams are scheduled to play twice in two weeks, a dilemma arises as to whether or not both play to their full capacity tomorrow night.

Media commentators speculated early this week, believing that both Alastair Clarkson and John Longmire will leave some finals secrets in the bag and not show their full hand at ANZ Stadium.

It certainly makes for an interesting sub-plot.

Battle of brilliance

A battle in the overall war of Friday night’s game is in the midfield, where two stellar engine rooms will go head to head.

For Hawthorn, it’s Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Brad Sewell and Luke Hodge.

For Sydney, it’s Ryan O’Keefe, Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack and Jarrad McVeigh.

When stacking those names up side by side, only two words come to mind for each. Tough and courageous.

The battle in the midfield on Friday night will be telling, as both teams priding themselves on their ability to play tough, contested footy and make their opponents feel their presence through hard hits and tackles designed to hurt.

The Swans are number one in the competition for contested footy, but have been beaten in that area recently by both Collingwood and Geelong, games in which they were defeated.

The Hawks have struggled at times in that area, most recently against Richmond in Round 19 where it was smashed in the contested ball and consequently smashed in the game.  They are ranked ninth in the league.

It will perhaps be the most telling stat on Friday night, and more than likely whichever team wins it, will win the game. It is the area that sets up the rest on the game – uncontested footy, inside 50s and most importantly, scores.

The Tippett factor

Alastair Clarkson must be smiling from ear to ear ahead of facing a Sydney team with Kurt Tippett at full forward because he’s got a big defender capable of doing the job.

Brian Lake was recruited to Hawthorn for the sole reason of playing on the big forwards in the competition, and relieving Josh Gibson to take the opposition’s second-best forward.

Since returning from an AFL imposed suspension, Tippett has been in incredible form and has kicked more goals than any other player since Round 14.

He leads the Sydney goal kicking with 33, despite having played only 10 games. He averages 3.3 per game.

He kicked six against Western Bulldogs and six against Collingwood before kicking five against St Kilda.

The only team to have kept him to one goal since his return is Geelong and Tom Lonergan. Hawthorn will be hoping they’ll be the second.

Quick ball movement, Sydney defence

Sydney are a team that plays for each other and work as hard defensively as they do offensively and that is telling when the midfielders get back to support the defence.

Both Ted Richards and Heath Grundy rely on that support to assist in their ability to shut down the opposition’s best forwards, and that will be particularly important when they face the league’s most dangerous forward line in the competition tomorrow night.

A focus for the Hawks will be to move the ball quickly through the midfield by generating uncontested possessions and spreading hard when they win the ball in close. From there, it will give the Swans midfielders little time to get back and provide support.

From there, the Hawthorn midfielders will need to lower their eyes and hit lead-up targets in the form of Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and Luke Breust.

The Hawks enter their 50m arc on average 64 times per game and take 15 marks inside the scoring zone – the best of any team.

Their ability to do that will be tested heavily on Friday night.

How they perform against each other

Hawthorn –

While Sydney have been one of the premier teams through Lance Franklin’s career with a plethora of impressive defensive options, the Swans are a team he has, historically, played well against.

Franklin has kicked 44 goals in 16 matches against the Swans, and has kicked six goals in his last two matches against them (three in Round 7, three in the Grand Final). It is his fourth-best record against any team.

Sam Mitchell is regarded as one of the game’s most consistent players, but he struggles against the Swans. Mitchell averages only 20.33 disposals against Sydney – his worst record against all teams in the league.

That average is 14 behind his best return – an average of 34 against GWS (averages 27.93 against West Coast, his best against teams other than the expansion clubs).

He does average 5.6 clearances against the Swans – his third-best record.

He has increased that disposal average to 24 in his last five games, however.

Luke Hodge averages only 19.39 disposals against the Swans – 10 less than his 29.6 against Gold Coast and seven less than his 26 against Collingwood.

In his last five games against them, he averages 24.2 touches, with his best game coming in the Round 7 match earlier this year where he was best on ground with 32 disposals.

Brad Sewell also doesn’t have the best record against Sydney, averaging only 20 touches in matches against them, but in his last five, has increased that average to 24.

Sydney –

Kieren Jack does not like to play Hawthorn. He averages only 16.1 disposals against the Hawks, 10 less than his best against GWS and eight less than his best against teams other than the expansion clubs.

His record against Hawthorn is his worst across all clubs.

Since becoming a premier midfielder of the competition, he has upped that average to 19.3.

The stats suggest Ryan O’Keefe’s best on ground performance in the Grand Final was an anomaly, given the Hawks are a team he struggles against historically.

He averages only 17 touches against the Hawks – though in his last five matches against them, has upped that average to 22.8.

Josh Kennedy is the best performed Swans midfielder of the trio, averaging against Hawthorn his most disposals against teams other than the expansion clubs.

He averages 26.30 touches against them in eight matches and in his last five, averages 30.6 touches against his former club.

Kurt Tippett has kicked only 13 goals in seven matches against Hawthorn, but his most recent match against was one of his best, booting four for the Crows in the Preliminary Final.

Key players

Hawthorn –

Josh Gibson: While his defensive partner Brian Lake will have the big job on Kurt Tippett, Gibson’s ability to give his teammate a chop out by zoning off his man and becoming third man up with be critical to Hawthorn’s fortunes. Also important is his ability to be attacking off half back, he has been one of his side’s best this year in the absence of Matt Suckling.

Sydney –

Ben McGlynn: The former Hawk has made a name for himself at the Swans as a goal sneak who loves tackling and applying pressure. He has kicked 28 goals this season, second only to Tippett at his club. He averages 3.9 tackles per game – sixth best at the Swans and is often a barometer for them. If he’s up and about, so are the Swans.