The form – Hawthorn

If you look at the stats from Friday night’s epic Preliminary Final win, they will tell you the final score was a lot closer than it should have been.

The Hawks smashed the Cats on the outside with their run and had 86 more uncontested possessions. In fact, the Hawks had 91 more possessions overall than Geelong. Hawthorn also won the clearances (36-32), tackles (62-55) and smashed the Cats in the inside 50s (64-42). They even won the hit outs comfortably – 43-23.

Hawthorn also had 10 more scoring shots, 32-22 but inaccuracy cost them a healthier winning margin.

That performance comes on the back of a smashing of Sydney in week one of the finals by 52 points – the Hawks are in great form heading into Saturday’s Grand Final with players like Sam Mitchell, Brian Lake and Josh Gibson in particular in great form.

The form – Fremantle

A lot has been said about Fremantle’s performance against Sydney last Saturday night, it was that impressive.

The Dockers strangled the Swans into submission in the second quarter, with the game essentially over at half such was their dominance.

Their pressure game is at its peak and was the reason why it was so successful against the premiers who couldn’t handle the swarm on Fremantle players that besieged them whenever in possession of the ball.

All their stars have fired in their two finals games - with Nathan Fyfe, David Mundy, Michael Barlow, Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands in particular looming large in Saturday’s decider.

They have also shown playing away from home is no issue having beaten the Cats in Geelong just three weeks ago, the Dockers couldn’t be any better placed for the Grand Final.

Freo’s pressure

The famed pressure of the Dockers has been impressive all year but has improved in the latter stages of the season and left their opponents in shock such is the ferocity in which it’s applied.

Sydney did not have a possession inside their forward 50 until the dying stages of the second quarter in last Saturday night’s Preliminary Final, such was the pressure applied both inside Fremantle’s forward arc and through the midfield.

The Swans kicked only one point for the quarter to Fremantle’s 5.2 – the game was over.

Interestingly and almost unbelievably, Sydney actually won the tackle count 76-71 but it was the inferred pressure and the fact that the Dockers had 36 more disposals overall that told the story.

But, while all the rage has been surrounding Fremantle and their manic pressure, the Hawks and the pressure they apply has flown under the radar.

Make no mistake, the Hawks apply just as much pressure as Fremantle. After all, the modern game relies heavily upon your ability to pressure your opposition, force the turnover and then score from those.

In fact, the Hawks have conceded just two fewer points against in its two finals matches than Fremantle, with both teams having played the same opposition.

The Hawks have conceded 148 points and Fremantle 146.

Hawthorn though has actually conceded less inside 50s – 80 in two games compared to 94 from Fremantle.

In terms of inside 50s and keeping the ball in the forward half, Hawthorn also has the edge having entered its forward arc 118 times during the finals compared to Fremantle’s 93.

The Sandilands factor

The midfields of Hawthorn and Fremantle are evenly matched, with stars in their peak ready to unleash on the biggest stage of all but the Dockers have one big advantage in the middle. Aaron Sandilands.

Since his return this year, Fremantle’s ability to win the ball at stoppages has sky rocketed and that has culminated in two brilliant performances in the midfield in the finals series.

Fremantle smashed the competition’s number one clearance side last week, Sydney and their domination from the midfield combined with their pressure delivered them a place in the Grand Final.

Freo had 42 clearances to Sydney’s 34 but the stats don’t reveal the true story of the game, particularly in the second and third quarters. It was a Fremantle avalanche.

Sandilands had 33 of Fremantle’s 53 hit outs against the Swans, with 13 of which went to the advantage of a teammate.

How might the Hawks cope

There might not be much to worry about from a Hawthorn perspective, given their performance against dominant ruckmen in recent matches.

The Hawthorn midfield is an experienced one and boasts a number of clearance specialists including Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell and Jordan Lewis.

They have been excellent at reading the ruck work of the opposing ruckman and nullifying their influence by sharking their taps in games, something the coaching staff would again back in on Saturday.

Most notably, the Hawthorn midfield nullified the influence of Shane Mumford in Round 23 and in the Qualifying Final, but it was their performance in the former that was most revealing.

In that game, the Hawks were without number one ruckman Max Bailey and the Swans dominated the hit outs, 55-33 but only12 of those 55 went to advantage and nine of Hawthorn’s 33 found a teammate.

It was a team effort too, from the Hawks with Paul Puopolo topping the clearances with six, along with Sewell, Mitchell, Lewis, David Hale, Brendan Whitecross and Isaac Smith with four. Shaun Burgoyne, Jarryd Roughead and Luke Breust also had three each.

Inaccuracy

It’s a cliché but it’s one that is most important in finals and particularly the Grand Final as the Hawks learned the hard way last year.

Being able to take your chances when they come is crucial, and both the Hawks and Dockers struggled in that area last week.

The Hawks kicked an inaccurate 14.18 against the Cats last week and it almost cost them a spot in the Grand Final. The Dockers too didn’t convert as they would have liked, kicking 14.15 for the game against the Swans.

With the game likely to go down to the wire, it might come down to who holds their nerve best in front of the big sticks on Saturday.

Hawthorn’s defence

It seems like an eternity ago that Hawthorn’s defence was viewed as its Achilles heel, such has been its performance this season.

Across the 22 home and away matches, the Hawks conceded the fifth less scores against in the league and as said earlier in the preview, it has actually conceded just two less points than Fremantle during the finals.

Brian Lake, Josh Gibson, Ben Stratton and Brent Guerra are the reliable stalwarts to are hard, tough and put their body on the line to stop any score for the opposition. They are reliable in one on one contests and Alastair Clarkson and his coaches will have full confidence in their ability to shut down the dynamic Fremantle forward line on Saturday.

Lake and Gibson will have their hands full with Matthew Pavlich and the resting ruckmen (Sandidlands and Zac Clarke), while Guerra, Stratton and Hodge will rotate between Chris Mayne, Hayden Ballantyne, Michael Walters and probably Fyfe when he’s down there.

Where will the taggers go?

Ryan Crowley has been one of, if not the best tagger in the game this year and he’s set for another big challenge on Grand Final day against one of Hawthorn’s elite midfielders.

With Sam Mitchell coming off a 38 disposal game, it seems the logical choice for Ross Lyon to send Crowley there but nothing about Ross Lyon and his coaching style is conventional.

Crowley could find his way onto a player like Isaac Smith, whose pace has become a crucial part of Hawthorn’s game, with his ability to break the lines critical in their ability to counterattack from defence.

Sydney chose to tag Smith and the Docker might do the same, but Mitchell’s game last week and the damage he caused will probably be too hard for Lyon to ignore.

Another possibility is a Shaun Burgoyne-Crowley match up, given Burgoyne’s match-winning performance last week.

The Hawks could also set Liam Shiels a defensive task in the Grand Final after he held Joel Selwood to two touches in the first quarter last week then nullified Steve Johnson after he kicked three goals in the first quarter and a bit.

Shiels could be used on a player like Stephen Hill, who the Hawks identified as a gun player when the sides met in Round 4.

Other possibilities for Shiels include Michael Barlow and Nat Fyfe who had been in scintillating form this season.

How they’ve performed in the past

Hawthorn –

Sam Mitchell is coming off one of his best ever games in the prelim, and is heading into the Grand Final with confidence given he has performed well against Fremantle in the past.

Mitchell averages 27.64 touches in 14 games against Freo – the second most against any club other than the two expansion teams. He also averages 5.9 clearances against them.

In his last five games, he has gathered 25, 21, 31, 34 and 35 disposals against them.

Brad Sewell also enjoys playing Fremantle, having averaged 22.1 touches in 10 games, with 28 and 29 touches in his last two matches against them in 2012 and 2011 (he didn’t play in the most recent match between the two sides).

Historically, inspirational skipper Luke Hodge hasn’t enjoyed his best games against Fremantle, with an average of 20.55 touches in 11 games. That average is 9.12 less than his best (29.67 against Collingwood).

In Grand Finals though, you know Luke Hodge will be among Hawthorn’s best such is his thirst for success and willingness to put his body on the line with no thought of his own safety.  

Lance Franklin averages just 2.2 goals against Fremantle in 10 games, which is well down too, on his output against other sides. In 10 games against St Kilda and Melbourne he has kicked 27 and 31 goals, while he had kicked 40, 36 and 36 against Brisbane, West Coast and Port Adelaide in 11 games.

Cyril Rioli loves playing the Dockers though, and has in fact kicked more goals against them than any other team and in just eight matches. Rioli has kicked 19 goals against Fremantle and averaged 14.13 disposals.

Fremantle –

Fremantle star David Mundy will need to defy history if he’s to play well against the Hawks on Saturday given he has historically struggled against the brown and gold.

Mundy averages only 16.7 touches against Hawthorn in 10 games – seven disposals less than his best, which is against Gold Coast. He had also only had 20 clearances in those games against the Hawks.

Michael Barlow is one of Fremantle’s most consistent midfielders and that shows in his stats. There is a difference of just four disposals between his second-best performance against a team and his eleventh best. He averages 25.67 touches against the Hawks in three games against the Hawks as well as 5.6 clearances.

Nathan Fyfe also performs well, averaging 24.75 touches in four matches against Hawthorn, his third-best record against any side.

In his four games he has gathered 27, 27, 23 and 22 disposals. He has only kicked two goals, however.

Up forward, skipper Matthew Pavlich has generally been well held by the Hawthorn defence. In 18 games he has kicked just 20 goals against the Hawks, with his best performance in the last five years coming in the Elimination Final in 2010 and Round 2, 2008 when he kicked three goals in both games.

Also in that time though, he has been held goalless on two occasions.  

Big man Aaron Sandlilands averages 27.4 hit outs against the Hawks in 10 games – his third worst record against all teams. He does though, find the footy against the Hawks, averaging 13.2 disposals, one of his best records against all clubs.