The formline – Hawthorn

The Hawks are well rested and ready to attack the second half of the season in the same way it did the first – with skill, precision and intensity.

Hawthorn players enjoyed three days off after defeating Melbourne by 95 points at the MCG in Round 10, before returning to training on Friday for a skills session.

Players were also put through their paces over the long weekend and on Queen’s Birthday Monday, to keep their skills sharp and turn their minds to Friday night’s clash against the Blues at Etihad Stadium.

Forward Jack Gunston should return from injury after being declared fit to play by Head of Coaching and Development, Chris Fagan on Wednesday, while Cyril Rioli will remain on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

The Hawks are on a nine-game winning streak and are well placed to extend that to 10, given the form it showed before the bye.

Despite its recent matches being against bottom eight sides Greater Western Sydney, Gold Coast and Melbourne, the Hawks have already beaten each of the sides currently in the top eight except for the Cats.

As has been the case for a number of season now, the Hawks are a formidable opponent for any side.

The formline – Carlton

Carlton’s form has been up and down this season, still adjusting to the new game plan being implemented by new Coach, Mick Malthouse.

The Blues showed some positive signs against the Bombers last Friday night, when it effectively moved the ball from defence to set up scoring chances thanks to precise kicking and speed of ball movement.

Alarmingly, however, it gave up what looked like a match winning 31 point lead midway through the third term to be overrun by a rampant Essendon in the second half.

So far, the only teams of note the Blues have beaten this season are West Coast and Adelaide despite having already faced Collingwood, Richmond, Geelong and Essendon last week.

Wins against Brisbane and Port Adelaide were less than convincing, and the loss to St Kilda in Round 7 seemed to best portray where the Blues are at – the difference between their best and worst is too great.

Carlton could be bolstered, though by the return of key defensive midfielder Andrew Carrazzo from injury, while Robbie Warnock could also return from injury to free up Matthew Kreuzer to play up forward and assist Jarrad Waite.

Jarrad Waite’s form

He’s easily Carlton’s most important player and the form of Jarrad Waite is encouraging as the Blues head into a difficult phase of their season.

Waite missed the opening five matches of the season through injury, and Carlton looked bereft of forward structure, unsure where to kick it when gun midfielder Chris Judd, Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs inevitably gathered the footy.

Immediately, however, Waite provided the target it so desperately needed in his return game against Melbourne, with his presence making the Carlton forward line dangerous.

In that game, he gathered 14 disposals, took 10 marks and had four scoring shots for 2.2.

He missed the St Kilda game through suspension, and his importance to Carlton had never been more glaringly obvious as the Blues had no viable tall target to kick to up forward.

He returned against Port Adelaide and took another six marks before kicking three goals in his next two games against Brisbane and Greater Western Sydney.

Now though, five games into his return, Waite is gathering momentum – and that culminated in a seven goal haul against the Bombers last Friday night.

It was a devastating performance from Waite who at one stage in the second term had kicked four of Carlton’s five goals.

He took 14 marks and most importantly, kicked accurately as he was Carlton’s best player in the 5 point loss.

He is mobile, an excellent mark both overhead and on the lead and provides the Hawks with the biggest thread up forward for Carlton.

Interestingly though, Waite has kicked just 10 goals in nine games against Hawthorn.

Who gets the job?

Expect Alastair Clarkson to give Josh Gibson the role on Waite on Friday night if the Blues opt to keep youngster Levi Casboult in the side.

Casboult is a big bodied youngster more likely to be a stay at home full forward, the type of player Brian Lake has made a career out of playing on.

Luckily for the Hawks, they have two exceptional options to choose from in defence to stand the in-form Blues forward. If Waite is getting the better of one, then the other will be ready to step up and do the job.

The Ratten factor

Another weapon at Alastair Clarkson’s disposal this week is former Carlton coach, Brett Ratten.

Now an assistant coach at the Hawks, Ratten will provide both Hawthorn players and coaches with intimate knowledge of the players he coached since the end of 2007.

He will know the strengths and weaknesses of players like Waite, Judd, Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer, but what he won’t know if the ways in which these players have changed since he departed in August last year.

What’s changed since his departure?

The Blues are certainly more defensive minded under Malthouse, but it has been the role of two players that has been the most notable change since taking over last November.

One player whose role certainly has changed since the arrival of Malthouse is Kade Simpson.

A free-wheeling wingman under Ratten, Malthouse has transformed Simpson into a running half back whose number one priority is to defend.

Similarly, Andrew Walker played as a key forward under Ratten, but now occupies a role in Carlton’s back six not too dissimilar of that of Malthouse’s former captain, Nick Maxwell at Collingwood.

Walker is Carlton’s preferred loose man in defence, able to impact contests as the third man up or mark opposition kicks inside their forward 50.

His pace and confidence in his ability enabled him too, to be a weapon off half back with his foot skills valuable coming out of defence.

Walker is ranked equal first at the Blues for uncontested possessions, rebound 50s and running bounces. He’s also ranked third for one percenters.

Hawthorn’s winning streak

The Hawks have won their past nine encounters against the Blues, and haven’t been beaten by Carlton since 2005.

In recent years, Hawthorn has easily defeated Carlton – averaging a winning margin of 41 points since 2005.

On the stats sheet

Interestingly, the Blues are the number one ranked side in the competition for contested marks, having taken 151 so far this season – an average of 13.7 per game.

That stat would be on the back of the emergence of Lachie Henderson and Michael Jamison in defence, who have now been taught to back their judgement and ability – to mark opposition kicks when possible instead of spoiling out of bounds.

Unfortunately for the defensive pair, however, they’ll be up against the best forward line (statistically) in the competition on Friday night.

Hawthorn has taken more marks on average inside 50 than any other team this season (14.9 per game) and kicked the most goals on average with 18.

The Hawks also get the ball more often than any other team, averaging 390 disposals per game, and use it better than anyone else with a disposal efficiency of 73.5.

Carlton is ranked eighth for disposal efficiency and tenth for disposals per game.

Hawthorn also statistically has the edge in the contested ball, averaging 150.5 per game to be ranked third in the league.

Interestingly, however, despite popular belief that the Blues are considered a more “outside” team, they average just 0.3 less contested possessions than Hawthorn who boast hard nuts like Sam Mitchell and Brad Sewell.

Carlton are ranked equal fourth, with 150.1.

Key players

Hawthorn –

Bradley Hill: Carlton is a quick side, so Hawthorn’s ability to also use its pace will be critical to the outcome of the game on the fast Etihad Stadium deck. Hill has enjoyed an impressive season to date, but another impressive performance against a talented side will underline his status as a best 22 player at the Hawks.

Isaac Smith: Smith had arguably his best game for the season against the Demons the week before the bye, with his ability to use the ball and his pace effectively. Smith doesn’t lack confidence; he takes on his opponents and breaks the lines for the Hawks. That will be critical on the smaller ground at Etihad.

Paul Puopolo: Another player at Hawthorn with pace, Puopolo has made a name for himself this season with his work off the ball. He uses his pace to pressure the opposition, even if he doesn’t lay a tackle. He adds perceived pressure, something just as important as tackled made.

Carlton –

Jeff Garlett: Jarrad Waite will be the main target up forward for the Blues, so Garlett’s ability to get front and centre will go a long way to Carlton’s ability to kick a winning score. The pace of the Carlton forward line could pose a problem for the Hawthorn defence.

Eddie Betts: Betts had a quiet game against the Bombers last week and will be hoping to have a bigger impact on Friday night. He averages 1.3 goals per game at Etihad Stadium but had kicked just 12 goals in eight games against the Hawks.

Mitch Robinson: Hawthorn has a number of players who thrive on winning the hard ball, so Carlton will need their hard nuts to step up. In the navy blue, there are none harder than Robinson whose kamikaze style attack on the ball is inspirational to his teammates.