The form – Hawthorn

The Hawks returned to the winner’s list following consecutive losses, narrowly escaping a shock defeat at the hands of GWS last Sunday.

Without seven of its best players, Hawthorn’s performance wasn’t actually as concerning as some may think, with a number of young players, including five with less than 10 games of AFL experience, the Hawks still managed to defeat a talented GWS.

In the weeks previous, despite losing to Port Adelaide and Sydney, Hawthorn’s form has been impressive but it has rather been the lack of experienced personnel that has cost them.

 

The form – West Coast

After winning three of their first five games, the Eagles have won just one game since, against GWS in Round 8. The Eagles have struggled to take marks up forward despite their talented forward line and have lacked polish through the middle.

Their loss to North Melbourne last Sunday night was a performance they’d rather forget, kicking just six goals for the game.

But their admirable loss to Collingwood, where they controlled the game for the majority of the game showed what they are capable of.

 

Recent history

Hawthorn has won four of their past five games against the Eagles, including the two encounters between the teams last year – one in Perth and one in Melbourne.

The Hawks defeated the Eagles by 20 points in Round 13 last year at Etihad Stadium and by 50 points in Round 2 at Patersons Stadium.

In fact, the Hawks have won seven of their past 10 encounters with the Eagles by an average of 35 points. Four of those victories have been by five goals or less, however, with last year’s Round 2 win, and 71-point and 57-point wins in 2008 the anomalies.

 

Eagles forward woes

On talent, West Coast has one of the most exciting forward lines in the competition, both in talls and smalls but this year they haven’t been able to reach their full potential.

The Eagles have struggled to score this year despite Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling, Dean Cox, Nic Naitanui and Mark LeCras all playing as permanent forwards at some stage if not all game.

West Coast are actually ranked seventh overall for points for, averaging 90.4 per game but last week managed just six goals in their loss to North Melbourne.

Their inability to kick goals has been a recurring them this season, particularly against the sides in the top eight. West Coast have failed to kick seven goals or more goals three times this season (against North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Fremantle) and once managed just four goals for the game, against Geelong in Round 4.

The Eagles are ranked 14^th in the competition for marks taken inside 50, averaging only nine per game – equal with GWS but from a massive average of 51.1 inside 50s per game (GWS average 47.6 inside 50s).

Comparatively, Hawthorn is ranked second overall with an average of 13.4 per game from 55.8 inside 50s.

Their 9.2 average this season is lower than their average in 2009, when they were ranked last in the league for marks inside 50, with 9.9. It is their lowest average since 2008 (8.8).

 

Why are they struggling

 West Coast’s ball movement through the midfield is stagnant, which is allowing their opposition to get back in numbers to block the space in front of their dangerous forwards.

The Eagles generate little or no run off half back or through the middle. Too many times they kick over the mark and move the ball slowly giving their forward no chance at a one-on-one contest.

North Melbourne exploited that last week and swept the ball away time and time again from their back 50, as did Collingwood, particularly in the second half in the week previous.

West Coast are ranked ninth in the league for uncontested possessions but eleventh for disposal efficiency so whenever they do get it in space, they turn it over.

They had 52 clangers against North Melbourne last weekend – the second-worst of any game this season - 46 against Collingwood, 43 against Fremantle, 48 against Carlton, 47 against Port Adelaide and 54 against Geelong in Round 5, their worst for the year.

They average 44.4 clangers per game.

Their ball use this season has slipped back into the poor use in 2010 where they finished in the bottom four.

 

Why that spells danger against the Hawks

Hawthorn sets up their own scoring chances through clinical ball movement but what they also do particularly well is cut teams apart and make them pay for poor use of the footy.

That spells danger for the Eagles.

When Hawthorn are at their best, they are forcing turnovers through their pressure inside forward 50 by forcing teams to kick long to contests or by setting up their defensive structure to force teams to test their kicking skills.

Hawthorn is the number on scoring team in the competition, averaging 116.2 points per game and if they can force the Eagles into trying to make precise passes, the Eagles could find themselves in a dire situation.

Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston combined for five goals each in the last meeting between the two sides in Round 13 last year and Luke Breust was also among Hawthorn’s best on that night – they will hurt the Eagles again on Saturday if the Hawks get easy ball through the middle.

While the Hawks are ranked 18^th in the league for tackles, it is more their defensive structure and positioning combined with their tackling that makes them a good defensive side and able to force turnovers.

 

In the midfield

While the Eagles have struggled in the midfield this season, ranked 16^th for clearances and 11^th for centre clearances, one player who hasn’t is Matt Priddis.

The tough in-and-under midfielder has been a consistently good performer for his side this year and is ranked first at his club for disposals (28.6 average), first for contested possessions (14.2), first for clearances (5.4) and first for tackles (6.6).

What he needs though, are for his midfield teammates to step up.

Former Collingwood midfielder Sharrod Wellingham is one who can provide that line-breaking run they’ve been lacking, as can Shannon Hurn who has been targeted off half-back this year and well held.

The Eagles have the edge in the ruck with Cox and Naitanui but the fact they are lowly ranked for clearances means they aren’t tapping to the advantage of their midfielders.

In contrast, the Hawks have been particularly strong in the clearances this season, they are the league-leaders in this area, averaging 42.7 clearances per game. The Hawks are ranked fourth overall for centre clearances, averaging 14 per game (0.6 clearances behind the leaders, Adelaide).

The probable return of Jordan Lewis will boost the midfield – he’s Hawthorn’s leader for disposals, contested possessions and clearances, while Shaun Burgoyne will be looking to atone for his uncharacteristically quiet performance against the Giants on Sunday.

Burgoyne would be up there in Hawthorn’s best and fairest this season, averaging 24.5 disposals, 4.4 clearances, 4.3 tackles and 3.9 inside 50s.

Isaac Smith has been another weapon for the Hawks this season through the middle and now up forward, Hawthorn’s best against the Giants last week with four goals. He is an offensive weapon.