The form – Hawthorn
Challenged in the last three games of the season, the Hawks head into Friday night’s Qualifying Final with the confidence it can change the momentum of a game even when it’s not playing its best football.
In the last two weeks, the Hawks trailed North Melbourne and Sydney by four goals in the first half before re-grouping at half time to get its game going in the midfield and the subsequently up forward and in defence in stopping the opposition from scoring.
The Hawks will take comfort in knowing it has beaten the Swans twice this season – in Round 7 and last weekend, but know they will need to be much better in the clinches from the opening bounce on Friday night.
Jarryd Roughead is in good form and Luke Breust also returned to good goal kicking form last Friday night, while Brian Lake and Josh Gibson are as reliable as ever down back heading into the first final and the midfield responded in the second half but would be aware it needs to be better than it was in the first half last week.
The form – Sydney
Beaten convincingly by Collingwood and Sydney before taking on Hawthorn last Friday night, the Swans showed why they’re such a powerful and balanced side, pushing the Hawks to the death at ANZ Stadium.
John Longmire would be happy with his midfield, with Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack and Ryan O’Keefe all amongst his team’s best in last weekend’s loss, while youngster Luke Parker showed he could be an x-factor up forward this finals series.
Shane Mumford is in imposing form in the ruck, while Jesse White is back in form after kicking three goals against the Hawks following a few lean weeks.
Worryingly though, was the fact the defence allowed 17 forward 50 marks for Hawthorn last Friday, something it cannot afford to concede this weekend.
At selection
Hawthorn –
The Hawks are in excellent shape heading into the first final with just three players unavailable for selection (Matt Suckling, Ryan Schoenmakers and Alex Woodward).
That means Alastair Clarkson and his match committee will have a tough week at the selection, with Cyril Rioli, Liam Shiels, Max Bailey and Brent Guerra all expected to be available providing they get through the final training session on Thursday.
There will be one forced change though, with star forward Lance Franklin suspended for one week.
Hawthorn has managed its players well in the lead-up to the finals series having taken a no-risk policy with its players. Rioli, Guerra, Bailey, Lewis and Paul Puopolo are among those who have sat our matches in the last three weeks.
Sydney –
After having a number of key personnel out last week, the Swans are set to be bolstered by the return of key forward Kurt Tippett, star midfielder Dan Hannebery and defender Nick Smith who were rested with niggling injuries last week.
Also in the selection frame is exciting midfielder Lewis Jetta who hasn’t played since Round 10, but returned on the weekend and played just over a half of footy in the reserves.
It appears Adam Goodes, Sam Reid and Lewis Roberts-Thomson won’t return, while Rhyce Shaw will miss the remainder of the season with a ruptured ACL.
With the certain inclusion of Tippett, Hannebery and Smith, it means the Swans will field a much more experienced team than the one Hawthorn faced last Friday night with the likes of Harry Cunningham and Brandon Jack on the selection periphery.
O’Keefe v Mitchell
It is the match-up that seems certain to occur given it has been the norm the last three times the Hawks and Swans have met.
O’Keefe lined up on Mitchell again last Friday night, with the Hawks star managing just nine touches late in the second term before being one of the players that sparked the Hawks in the midfield in the second half.
Mitchell finished with 26 disposals and four clearances but had nowhere near his usual impact.
The Swans midfielder, who won the North Smith Medal in the Grand Final last year on the other hand had no such trouble finding the footy, finishing with 27 disposals, 11 tackles, five clearances and three inside 50s.
This match-up is one to keep an eye out for on Friday night, given both players are so important to their respective teams.
Tippett and Sydney’s forward line
The Hawks would have breathed a sigh of relief when Kurt Tippett was a late withdrawal last Friday night, but they’ll be dealt no such assistance this Friday, with John Longmire declaring his star forward a certain starter.
By not playing last week, however, Tippett could have done the Hawks a favour in a way for this week, reminding them of the potent nature of their forward line.
Tippett is the club’s leading goal scorer but he’s followed closely by Ben McGlynn (29 goals), Jude Bolton (27) and Mike Pyke (26). Jess White, who kicked three goals last week and has played just 12 games this year has kicked 19 goals and Luke Parker who also kicked three has kicked 18 for the year.
Make no mistake though, Tippett is still the focal point and most dangerous forward at Sydney and Alastair Clarkson will be glad he has Brian Lake to start on him, and Josh Gibson to move there if he’s proving the difference.
Since returning from an AFL imposed suspension, Tippett has been in incredible form and has kicked more goals than any other player since Round 14, with 33 despite having played only 10 games. He averages 3.3 per game.
The only team to have kept him to one goal since his return is Geelong and Tom Lonergan.
Pressure footy
Finals football is about one thing, pressure and there’s none better in the competition at applying it than Sydney.
The Swans ended the season as the number one tackling team with an average of 71.7 per game and they reached that average last Friday night.
Hawthorn and Sydney laid a combined 151 tackles for the game and if that’s any indication, expect there to be nearly 100 tackles laid by both sides on Friday night.
The Hawks had trouble with Sydney’s swarm in the first term, resulting in a number of turnovers by hand.
If Friday night was a dress rehearsal, the Hawks will be much better equipped to handle the Sydney pressure this week.
No Buddy, no worries?
The Hawks have won 12 of their past 13 matches without Lance Franklin, but have never played without him in a big finals game.
Friday night is the ultimate test for the Hawthorn forwards, namely Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston – two players who have starred in the absence of Franklin.
When Franklin doesn’t play, Roughead becomes the number on target inside 50, with an average of nine kicks directed towards him, up from 5.3 when Franklin is there.
Gunston’s star also rises, the target of an average of 5.3 forward entries, up from just 2.2.
One thing is for sure, the Hawks become a lot less predictable without the star forward, much like Sydney was without Tippett last Friday night.
How they perform against each other
Hawthorn –
Sam Mitchell is regarded as one of the game’s most consistent players, but he struggles against the Swans and that was evident again last Friday night as touched on earlier.
Mitchell averages only 20.63 disposals against Sydney – his worst record against all teams in the league.
That average is 14 behind his best return – an average of 34 against GWS (averages 27.93 against West Coast, his best against teams other than the expansion clubs).
He does average 5.6 clearances against the Swans – his third-best record.
He has increased that disposal average to 23.4 in his last five games, however.
Luke Hodge averages only 19.21 disposals against the Swans, an average that has dropped by 0.28 after last Friday night’s match – 10 less than his 29.6 against Gold Coast and seven less than his 26 against Collingwood.
In his last five games against them, he averages 22.8 touches, with his best game coming in the Round 7 match earlier this year where he was best on ground with 32 disposals.
Jarryd Roughead, who will be the focal point up forward in the absence of Franklin kicked four goals against the Swans last week and has his fourth-best goal kicking record against them of all clubs in the AFL.
He has kicked 27 goals in 15 matches against the Swans.
Sydney –
Historically, Kieren Jack does not like to play Hawthorn but his form against them last Friday night suggested otherwise.
Jack gathered 27 disposals, had 13 inside 50s and five clearances to be one of his side’s best.
That increases his disposal average from 16.1 in his last three games against the Hawks to 21.25 in his last four matches against them, though that is five less than his best against GWS.
Ryan O’Keefe’s has improved his output against the Hawks in recent times after historically struggling against them.
He averages only 17.62 touches against the Hawks – though in his last five matches against them, has upped that average to 24.8.
Josh Kennedy is the best performed Swans midfielder of the trio, averaging against Hawthorn his most disposals against teams other than the expansion clubs.
He averages 27.11 touches against them in nine matches and in his last five, averages 30.2 touches against his former club.
Kurt Tippett has kicked only 13 goals in seven matches against Hawthorn, but his most recent match against was one of his best, booting four for the Crows in the Preliminary Final.
