The form line – Hawthorn
Stunningly, the top-of-the-table Hawks are coming off a 41-point loss at the hands of Richmond and will be keen to make a statement against the Saints on Friday night.
The Hawks put in their most disappointing performance of the season against the Tigers last weekend, smashed in contested footy and clearances.
Those areas will be of particular focus for them no doubt on Friday night, keen to remind the rest of the competition of their capabilities in the midfield.
It’s not all doom and gloom though for Hawthorn, who were impressive against the Bombers in Round 18 – putting in arguably their best performance of the year in that game.
The Hawks rarely play two bad games in a row, expect a better performance from them on Friday night.
The form line – St Kilda
The Saints are in a transition phase, with speculation circling that they might be looking to offload or retire some senior players at the end of the season.
With that, is the fact the Saints have a number of injuries to senior players, forcing them to take on a youth policy, where Coach Scott Watters is throwing his youngsters into the deep end to see how they cope with the standard of AFL.
They have lost their past six matches in a row, with their last win in Round 13 against the Demons.
Undoubtedly, the Saints are struggling through season 2013, but the fact remains they still have a number of experienced player still playing good footy and the Hawks will need to be award of that on Friday night.
St Kilda is coming off a 31-point loss to Brisbane, nothing to be ashamed of given the expectation on the Lions coming into this season.
Concerns for the Saints
Lance Franklin won't play against the Saints on Friday night due to a hamstring injury, but that will do little to relieve the headaches the Hawthorn forward line causes opposition coaches.
Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston both enjoy leading the Hawthorn forward line in the absence of Franklin and they proved that when Franklin was a late withdrawal for the Round 16 match against Port Adelaide.
In that game, Roughead was best on ground with five goals and Gunston proved just as dangerous, also kicking a game-high five goals.
Not to mention the Hawks also have the luxury of David Hale floating forward and taking a mark or three in the forward line and kicking goals.
The problem for St Kilda is, 13 of their 17 190cm or more players are injured.
The two players named at full back and centre half back last weekend against the Lions both won’t play, with Rhys Stanley breaking his collarbone and Tom Simpkin booked in for surgery.
Reliable defender Sam Fisher is out, as are experienced players Beau Maister and Sam Gilbert.
Luckily for the Saints, however, Sean Dempster is available to take on either Roughead or Gunston as he did in the corresponding match last year, while veteran Jason Blake will more than likely be elevated from the VFL to fill the void.
Why St Kilda won’t be taken lightly
It’s hard to believe just three years ago the Saints were an AFL powerhouse and playing off in consecutive Grand Finals given they currently sit 16th on the AFL ladder.
But that’s the scenario and transition phase facing the playing group (and coaching staff) of a St Kilda side that still boasts a number of experienced and damaging players.
Nick Dal Santo, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna and Clint Jones are still a formidable trio in the midfield, the difference is, now they’re ably assisted by talented youngsters and AFL players in their own right, Jack Steven and David Armitage.
Hayes, Steven, Armitage, Dal Santo, Montagna and Jones all make up the top six at the club for contested possessions and clearances, and all feature in the top seven for tackles.
Up forward, Nick Riewoldt is still working as hard and playing as well as ever, having kicked 41 goals this season, as well as goal sneak Stephen Milne who has been at his dangerous best with 22 goals this year.
Contested footy
Going into last week’s game against Hawthorn, Richmond was ranked 16th in the competition for contested possessions, yet came out and smashed the Hawks in that area to set up the win.
This week, St Kilda goes into its game against the Hawks now ranked 16th for contested possessions, with an average of 129.4 per game.
Hawthorn is ranked equal sixth with Essendon, averaging 145.4 per game, but as was evidenced against the Tigers, stats can only tell you so much, they don’t measure endeavour on the day.
St Kilda will be looking at Richmond’s willingness to win the hard ball and expose Hawthorn on the outside, and given the speed it does have with players like Jack Steven who aren’t afraid to take the game on, they could trouble Hawthorn in that area.
The Hawks on the other hand will be aware of how they were exposed by the Tigers last Saturday and will view winning the contested ball and being first in at the contest as one of the most important focus areas on Friday night.
Coach Alastair Clarkson was strong post-match last week in his assessment of his team.
"You're always going to look pretty ordinary when you're second to the ball like we were early in the game,” he said.
Hawthorn players will be keen to make amends for last week’s performance in that area.
Key players
Hawthorn –
Jordan Lewis: Often, when Hawthorn makes a statement and throw their bodies on the line at the contest, it’s Vice-Captain Jordan Lewis leading the way. With skipper Luke Hodge out with a fractured thumb, Lewis, as he did last season, will assume a more prominent leadership role and inspire his teammates with his actions on the field. He will be throwing his body in at all costs from the first bounce on Friday night.
St Kilda –
Nick Dal Santo: Dal Santo has been effectively tagged out of matches on a few occasions this season and he’ll need to fire against the Hawks if the Saints are to be a chance to win. He is a smooth mover and rarely wastes it when he gets it, so his ability to win the ball in space and deliver to his forwards will be essential for the Saints.