The form – Hawthorn

The Hawks enter Saturday’s clash in good shape, coming off an impressive win over Carlton last Friday night.

Hawthorn were challenged throughout the night but were able to absorb the pressure and then kick away to a 28-point victory in the end. The win came in similar vein to that of the performance against West Coast the week previous.

Bradley Hill is hitting a rich vein of form – best on ground against Carlton – while Brad Sewell is now four games back from injury and getting back to his best and Jordan Lewis is arguably playing career-best footy.

 

The form – Collingwood

The Pies would have expected to be entering Saturday’s game with nine wins and three losses but after the shock loss to the Bulldogs last Sunday, they’re looking vulnerable.

Collingwood have been struck by injury, particularly in defence, but Travis Cloke has kicked 13 goals in the last three weeks and is looking more like the ominous forward of seasons past.

Scott Pendlebury is playing great footy, as is Dayne Beams despite missing last week’s loss but Nathan Buckley will be looking for more of a contribution from Dane Swan, who has been down on form this season.

 

Recent history

Hawthorn has enjoyed a good run against the Pies in recent times, winning the past five meetings between the two sides comfortably, by an average of 39 points.

The closest Collingwood has come to defeating Hawthorn is 22 points in Round 1, 2012.

 

Pie injuries

The Magpies have lost key players ahead of Saturday’s game – it’s been their defence that has been hit hardest.

Full back Nathan Brown is out for the season after having a shoulder reconstruction, swingman Ben Reid is also out injured after suffering another setback at training, fellow swingman Tyson Goldsack will miss with a knee injury and Nick Maxwell is also out with a calf injury.

Compounding those key names who won’t play is the fact that key defender Jack Frost injured his knee in the loss to the Bulldogs and struggled to play out the game.

The Pies are severely lacking in key defensive options to cover the talls at the Hawks.

 

What does that mean?

Unfortunately for Collingwood, their injuries have come at the wrong time as they come face to face with the league’s heaviest scoring team of the last three seasons.

Even without Jack Gunston last week, the Hawks still managed to kick above their season average of 116 points per game – recording an 18.10 to 13.12 win over Carlton.

Gunston (29 goals) will return on Saturday from a corked calf to take his place alongside Jarryd Roughead (33) and David Hale (10) as Hawthorn’s dangerous big men.

Then, the Pies will also need to find players to contain Luke Breust (31 goals) and Cyril Rioli (17), two players who have caused the Pies grief in the past.

Breust has kicked more goals against Collingwood (and Gold Coast) than any other opposition side, booting 13 goals in six matches, which includes a haul of five in the Round 17 game in 2012.

Breust has only been held goalless once against the Pies and failed to kick multiple goals on only one occasion.

While Rioli averages just over a goal a game against the Pies, it has been more his ability to set up his teammates that has made him a dangerous weapon for the Hawks.

Rioli averages 16.7 disposals in 11 games against them – his second-best record against any team - and a massive 16 goal assists – his best record against all opposition.

 

The Cloke factor

After an uncharacteristically quiet opening two months, Travis Cloke has now hit his straps, booting 13 goals in his last three games, including a bag of six in the loss to the Bulldogs last week.

But it hasn’t just been his goal kicking tally that has gone on a steep rise, it has also been his ability to take big marks and gets get his hands on the footy around the ground.

Cloke picked up a season-high 23 disposals against St Kilda three weeks ago, the same game in which he booted five goals to lead the Pies to victory. He also clunked a season-high 12 marks in that game.

The Pie big man is now in top 10 in the league for marks, averaging 6.5 and ranked sixth for contested marks, with a 1.7 average. That is just 0.5 marks behind the league leader, Aaron Sandilands with 2.2.

Cloke has had a lot of success against the Hawks too, booting 30 goals in 16 games, including a bag of six in the 2012 Qualifying Final and a five-goal haul in Round 3 last year.

The last time Cloke was held to just one goal against the Hawks was in Round 17, 2012 (beaten by Ryan Schoenmakers on that day) and the time before that, Round 22, 2010.

The issue for Hawthorn is that Cloke now has a level of confidence up after his last three games and will come up against an under-strength Hawthorn defence.

Josh Gibson is still five weeks away from returning and Brian Lake is no guarantee to come straight back into the side after missing six weeks with a calf injury. Ben Stratton is a chance to play but he won’t take Cloke, the task will fall to either Schoenmakers, Matt Spangher or Kyle Cheney.

The Hawks were monstered by Carlton’s Levi Casboult in the second quarter last week, so that is an area of concern for coach, Brendon Bolton.

 

In the midfield

Saturday’s clash will see two gun midfields go head-to-head, with the Hawks to be led by Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge and Brad Sewell and the Pies by Scott Pendlebury, Dayne Beams and Dane Swan.

But one clear difference between the two sides, while both have class players across all lines is that Hawthorn are clearly the better users of the footy.

Hawthorn run at 73.7 per cent efficiency to be ranked second in the league, while Collingwood have been poor all year, running at 69.7 per cent to be ranked last in the competition.

The Hawks are one side who never give you a second chance because the likes of Matt Suckling, Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne, Cyril Rioli and Luke Breust just to name a few will make you pay, so the Pies will be hoping to have their season-best kicking performance of the year on Saturday.

The Hawks win and control the ball more than any other side, averaging 402.5 disposals per game but if stats are anything to go by, they’ll be forced to handball more than they kick on Saturday because they’re up against the best tackling team in the competition.

Collingwood average 75.6 tackles per game – they rely on their pressure to dispossess their opposition to then score from the turnover but Hawthorn’s precise kicking game style could be the kryptonite to that plan.

Another area in which the Hawks have the edge is the clearances, ranked second overall with an average of 42 per game, while Collingwood are ranked 16^th with 34.7. The Hawks are also well performed at the centre bounce, winning 13.4 centre clearances to Collingwood’s 10.8.